The United States will look to once again reach the CONCACAF Nations League Finals when they host Panama in a knockout match at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night.
Panama has failed to score a goal in two appearances in this competition’s semifinal stage, and they come into the fixture in poor form. The Americans are battling numerous injuries at striker and fullback, but Christian Pulisic is having the best season of his career and is always a danger to score.
My USA vs. Panama predictions and free betting picks for Thursday, March 20 explain why the Yanks will get the win but fail to keep a cleen sheet.
USA vs Panama picks and predictions
My best bet: USA to win 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1 (+300 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Scoring bands can offer tremendous value when betting soccer, and we’re attacking that market for our best bet by taking the Americans to win while conceding a goal to Panama.
The Americans defeated Panama in their last meeting, taking a 2-0 victory in October as Mauricio Pochettino won his first match in charge with the USMNT, but a deep dive into the stats shows that it wasn’t as straightforward as the final score indicates.
Panama had more shots in the match despite having just 45% possession and were unfortunate not to score. They put just three shots on target from 13 attempts, missing both big chances created on the night.
Antonee “Jedi” Robinson was a key player in that match for the USMNT. One of the best left backs in the world, he won three tackles, had three recoveries, and did a solid job of limiting the impact of Yoel Barcenas. The winger was unable to create a single chance and managed just three touches in the penalty area.
However, Robinson withdrew from the USMNT squad on Monday, and that’s concerning, given the Yanks have won just one of the last five matches without him.
It also leaves the Americans without both first-choice fullbacks, not to mention the attacking threat he offers going forward. He’s notched 10 assists for Fulham in 20 matches in the Premier League and is among the top players in Europe in accurate crosses.
Those losses in defense should open the door for Panama to find a goal, likely through midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla. The dynamic playmaker is in fine form, and his ability to find his wide forwards in space will cause problems for the American defense. Goalkeeper Matt Turner is also prone to making mistakes, a key reason he’s not starting for Crystal Palace.
On the flip side, Panama loves to frustrate the Americans in attack. However, Fidel Escobar, a key piece to the heart of their defense, is suspended due to a red card picked up against Costa Rica.
While the Americans will be very thin at striker, they still have the likes of Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah in attack. Weah will be keen to make up for his red card against Panama in the 2-1 loss last summer in Copa America.
The Americans are heavily favored to win, and a win with both teams scoring is priced at +205. I don’t see Panama getting multiple goals or the USMNT putting five on the board. That’s why we’ll go with the scoring band and get a nice boost in price.
USA vs Panama same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score: Yes
Draw halftime / USA to win
While we can’t parlay our best bet, we can modify it for a hefty SGP payout.
It often takes the Americans time to break through against Panama, which is why four of the last five meetings dating back to 2021 have been level at halftime. In fact, three of those meetings have been scoreless at the break.
I have this match projected as a 1-1 draw heading into the break, with the USMNT pulling away after the intermission. The Americans possess much more depth, especially in the midfield, and will find the winning goal before locking down at the back end and forcing Panama to try to create scoring chances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USA vs Panama odds
USA vs Panama live odds
 USA |
 Panama |
|
|---|---|---|
| -345 | Moneyline | +760 |
| +380 | Draw | +380 |
| Over 2.5 (-141) | Total | Under 2.5 (-107) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
USA vs Panama side and Over/Under analysis
- The USMNT are -304 favorites on the 3-way line. Panama is +680 to win in regulation, with the draw priced at +359.
- Panama has just one win vs. four losses in their last six matches, but have two positive results in the last three outings against the Americans.
- The total of 2.5 sees the Over heavily favored at -150, with the Under getting -102 odds.
- Eight of Panama’s last 10 matches have gone Over, while the previous three for the USMNT have all seen 3+ goals.
How to watch USA vs Panama
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
USA vs Panama key injuries
USA: Antonee Robinson D (Out), Ricardo Pepi F (Out), Sergino Dest D (Out), Haji Wright F (Out), Folarin Balogun F (Out), Johnny Cardoso M (Out), Auston Trusty D (Out).
Panama: Jovani Welch F (Out), Fidel Escobar D (Out), Edgar Barcenas M (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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