USA vs Trinidad and Tobago Picks and Predictions: Pulling Out All Stops

The United States will face off with Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday, as both nations vie for a place in the knockout stages in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. 

Sitting on four points and a +6 goal differential, the United States controls their own destiny. However, with Jamaica likely on target for three points against St Kitts and Nevis and the goal differential gap expected to be erased, the Americans know a victory is needed to ensure top spot in Group A. Meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago know they almost certainly need a win to advance, a result they’ve achieved just once in the last eight meetings between these two nations.

Will the Yanks take care of business and move into the knockouts on a high note, or can the Soca Warriors pull off a massive upset and earn their first knockout stage appearance in eight years? Find out in our USA vs Trinidad and Tobago picks and predictions for Sunday, July 2. 

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 1, 2023.

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago picks and predictions

To say the Americans are favored to win is an understatement. As we will dive into more later, they’re prohibitive favorites on the 3-way money line, and for good reason. The last two meetings between these nations have seen a combined 13 goals scored, all scored by the USMNT. 

But simply beating Trinidad and Tobago isn’t enough for the Americans. Were this any other tournament, I’d expect USA to play somewhat defensively, get a goal or two, and get out with a win. But this is a unique situation, because winning the group means they avoid Mexico in the next round. El Tri is leading Group B and just defeated Honduras 4-0 and Haiti 3-1, and look to be rejuvenated under new manager Jaime Lozano.

In order to win the group, the Americans not only need to win, but also must maintain their superior goal differential over Jamaica. That goal differential sits at +3 entering the final round of group stage matches, and considering the USMNT put six past St Kitts and Nevis, it is unlikely Jamaica will have trouble erasing that three-goal gap very quickly.

This means two things for the Americans. One, it means manager B.J. Callaghan is going to have to roll with likely his best squad rather than rotating. But second, and more importantly, it means they’ll have to take some risks in this match. That could especially be the case if they’re up comfortably in the second half and they find out they need another goal or two to finish atop the group.

And that leads us into our best bet. We’re taking both teams to score in this match at a healthy +140 price. If this were a one-off match, I wouldn’t touch this prop bet. But at implied odds of 40.82%, I like this bet in this scenario. 

Trinidad and Tobago were down 3-0 to Jamaica at halftime on Wednesday night, and found a goal just after halftime as Jamaica got a bit sloppy at the back. While they only had three shots on the night, and only the one on target, they created multiple chances in the second half.

The Americans are likely going to need to win by at least three goals, and Trinidad and Tobago must win outright if they’re to go through. This means both sides have to attack, and the odds of both finding the back of the net are much higher because of it. In a match without much betting value, I’ll gladly take this prop at this price. 

My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (+140 at FanDuel)

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago side analysis

Depending on where you look, the Americans are priced between -800 and -1300 to win on the 3-way line, with Trinidad and Tobago getting +2,200 at multiple sites to pull off the upset. The draw can be had for +900 as well.

Jesus Ferreira bagged a hat trick in the 6-0 win over St Kitts and Nevis, and likely starts again for the Yanks. Jordan Morris could be resigned to the bench with a knee issue, while Miles Robinson and Aaron Long are question marks in defense. 

Trinidad and Tobago could be without defender Tristan Hodge, who missed the Jamaica match with a hamstring issue. But Kevin Molino and Kaile Auvray could return to the starting lineup, with Auvray giving them a boost in attack.

Trinidad and Tobago have just one victory versus four defeats in their last five meetings with the Americans – but that 2-1 win in 2017 prevented the Yanks from reaching the 2018 World Cup. On home soil, the Americans have outscored the Soca Warriors by an aggregate of 26-0. 

Trinidad and Tobago have lost just once in eight matches this year, but they weren’t able to find a way past Jamaica and won’t do so against the Yanks.  

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago Over/Under analysis

The total of 3.5 is the baseline for this match, with each side priced about evenly. The Americans easily eclipsed that number with a 6-0 win over St Kitts and Nevis, while Trinidad and Tobago did the same in a 4-1 loss to Jamaica.

The last two meetings between these sides saw 13 total goals scored, but before that only one of the last 10 matches saw more than three goals. That was a 4-0 win in 2016. In fact, three of the last seven showdowns saw two or fewer goals scored.

That said, the Over is the better play here for the very reasons discussed in our best bet. Both teams need to win, and the Americans need to win big. Settling for a low-scoring victory does them no good if they want to avoid Mexico, and that’s something every American manager wants to do. 

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago game info

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago key injuries

USA: Jordan Morris F (Questionable), Miles Robinson D (Probable), Aaron Long D (Questionable). 
Trinidad and Tobago: Tristan Hodge D (Questionable), Kaile Auvray F (Probable). 

USA vs Trinidad and Tobago weather

Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will be baking when the players take the pitch on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the high 90s in warmups and the mid 90s at kickoff, with very light winds. There is a small chance of rain, although it does grow as the match goes on with thunderstorms possible towards the end. 

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