The United States will attempt to put one foot into the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals on Thursday night when they host Trinidad and Tobago at the Q2 Stadium in Austin.
The first of a two-legged tie, this match represents much more than simply another step toward winning hardware. For Gregg Berhalter and the USMNT, victory over the two contests ensures their spot in the 2024 Copa America tournament against South America’s best. While he'll have to navigate without two of his best-attacking threats, the player pool is deep for this one.
Trinidad and Tobago will have nightmares about playing the Yanks, having been dominated over the past few years. Manager Angus Eve has put his faith in youngsters and it helped lead them out of their group, but it’s been more than 20 years since the nation has won a tournament knockout match.
The soccer betting odds for the United States vs Trinidad and Tobago are heavily juiced, but we’re here to help you find some value with our picks and predictions for Thursday, November 16.
USA vs Trinidad and Tobago best odds
 USA |
Trinidad and Tobago | |
|---|---|---|
| -2,800 | Moneyline | +4,000 |
| +1,600 | Draw | +1,600 |
| Over 2.5 (-450) | Total | Under 2.5 (+320) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on November 15, 2023.
USA vs Trinidad and Tobago picks and predictions
The United States have dominated Trinidad and Tobago over the past few years when they’ve played on American soil, and we’re backing that to happen again for our best bet.
These two nations have faced off three times since 2019. In those three matches, Trinidad and Tobago have attempted 20 shots. And in those same three matches, the United States have scored 19 goals.
To be fully fair, one of those matches was a friendly in early 2021. But the latest one, played in July, was part of the Gold Cup tournament. The Yanks walked out with a 6-0 victory after scoring three goals on either side of halftime and out-shooting the visitors 23-9 while completing more than twice as many passes on the day.
You might be thinking, “But can we replicate the previous results without Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah on the pitch?”
Well, I’m glad you asked.
The last two matches, with a combined 13-0 score, didn’t feature Pulisic at all. In fact, both matches were played without any European-based players from major leagues.
So if they could do that to Trinidad and Tobago with MLS names and guys playing in leagues like Italy’s Serie B, what’s going to happen Thursday night when Berhalter has players like Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, Gio Reyna, and Folarin Balogun at his disposal?
The answer is simple: they’re going to roll. I’m not going to say they once again put up a touchdown and an extra point on the visitors, but I’m confident they’ll win convincingly and comfortably.
Much of Trinidad and Tobago’s player pool hails from leagues that even hardcore soccer fans in America would be hard-pressed to name. Six of their players play in the United States, but none of them play above the second tier.
I’m not saying this will be a “Pros vs Joes” type of beatdown, but it wouldn’t take much for that to happen. Berhalter will want to end this quarter-final and leave Trinidad and Tobago with no hope in the second leg.
It’s why I considered some alternative spreads on the Asian market, which I’ll personally be sprinkling a bit myself. However, your best bet is to head to TonyBet and simply take the United States to win by four or more goals in a one-sided contest.
My best bet: United States -3.5 (-109 at TonyBet)
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USA vs Trinidad and Tobago same-game parlay
United States to win by 4+ goals (-105)
United States to win both halves (-200)
Both teams to score - No (-275)
We don’t have a huge payday from our same-game parlay, but the +162 odds at bet365 are still a solid return on a play that has a high probability of coming through.
The United States should win both halves of this match. Even with Berhalter likely making subs at halftime, there is plenty of firepower on the bench, and the previous three meetings have seen the Yanks fire home on either side of halftime.
We’re also backing the Americans to keep yet another clean sheet. With a first-choice defense against a T&T front line that offers little threat, it’s hard to see them failing to replicate the lockdown performance shown by domestic-based defenders in the past three meetings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
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USA vs Trinidad and Tobago side and Over/Under analysis
Unless you’re in the mood to play a lottery ticket, there’s no use even paying attention to the 3-way money line for this match. Books that are actually offering the United States to win are doing so at -2,800 or worse, while the draw is priced as high as +2200 with the Trinidad and Tobago win getting +6,000 at FanDuel.
The United States would have to have one of the biggest collapses in recent history for those prices to even matter. And even then, I’d argue the payouts aren’t providing proper value.
The total is a whole other discussion. I think there’s real value on the Over 4.5 which can be had for as much as +138 at FanDuel. Berhalter’s going to want to secure everything before heading to Trinidad and Tobago, a place where they’ve played the Americans fairly evenly in the past.
USA vs Trinidad and Tobago game info
| Location: | Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago |
| Date: | Thursday, November 16, 2023 |
| Time: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | 65F with 5 mph winds and 69% humidity. |
USA vs Trinidad and Tobago key injuries
USA:Christian Pulisic F (Out), Timothy Weah F (Out).
Trinidad and Tobago: No key injuries to report.
