West Ham vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Guns Drawn in London

On Sunday, we have an all-London matchup in the Premier League with West Ham taking on Arsenal. The Hammers entered the weekend just three points clear of the relegation spots and need to look over their shoulders. Meanwhile, the visitors, Arsenal, have a Premier League title to focus on and can’t afford to drop points as they go toe-to-toe with Man City in the hunt for silverware.

Will Arsenal pick up an easy three points or will West Ham be able to do themselves, and Manchester City, a big favor? Don’t miss our West Ham vs. Arsenal EPL betting picks and predictions for March 16.

West Ham vs Arsenal best odds

West Ham vs Arsenal picks and predictions

This West Ham vs. Arsenal tilt is a big game for both teams, with both desperate for points to fulfil their aims this season. For West Ham the goal is clear: survival. They entered the weekend 14th in the Premier League table but with just three points separating them and the relegation zone, they can’t be too carefree — they are well and truly in the dogfight to go down. For Arsenal, the goal is also clear: winning their first Premier League title in 19 seasons. They entered this weekend six points clear of Man City, but with City having a game in hand, which really ramps up the pressure on Arsenal, who need to kick on and gain ground.

This is a London derby in that both teams are based in England’s capital city, but their rivalry is not as intense as many others within the city. That said, this is a matchup which Arsenal have had the better of in recent years. West Ham last won a meeting with Arsenal back at the start of 2019, eight games ago. In that time, Arsenal have won six times with one game finished tied. It’s going to be tough for West Ham to get something here, with Arsenal atop the Premier League, having gathered over double the amount of points this season. 

West Ham have enjoyed a good campaign in Europe this year, but things haven’t been as good in the EPL. One of the reasons for that is their lack of firepower. They have one of the best defensive records in the bottom half of the Premier League, behind only Chelsea going into this weekend. However, they simply can’t score, averaging less than a goal per game. That helps inform our choice of best bet here, which is Arsenal to win to nil. 

Arsenal should win this and win it well; they’ve scored 72 goals this season, more than anyone besides Man City. Their favored front four have scored 44 goals between them, not bad considering Gabriel Jesus missed nearly half a season. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the likes of Brighton and Newcastle score four and five against West Ham, and you can see Arsenal getting at least two or three.

Arsenal have three clean sheets in their last seven Premier League games and now face a West Ham team who are really struggling to find the back of the net. That all makes me more confident that we’ll see Arsenal keep another clean sheet here. At +162, you’re getting a good price on Arsenal winning and not conceding, especially when the Arsenal moneyline win is only -175.

My best bet: Arsenal win to nil (+162 at bet365)

West Ham vs Arsenal side analysis

The visitors will probably set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. This suits their personnel and gives them extra defensive strength which they’ll need against Arsenal. However, in recent weeks they’ve played in both 4-4-2 and a 3-4-2-1, so there is a chance we see something different here too. 

The central defensive duo are Nayef Aguerd and Kurt Zouma, and Thilo Kehrer and Emerson will play outside of them. Declan Rice, linked with a move to Arsenal, and Tomas Soucek will anchor the midfield. Rice is key to this West Ham team and his performance could impact Sunday’s game; if he’s at his best then he’ll be able to limit how Martin Odegaard can move behind Gabriel Jesus and stop him dictating play. 

Danny Ings will likely get the nod up front, but he’ll need service from Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta, behind him, potentially alongside Said Benrahma.

Arsenal’s starting lineup writes itself at this stage, and the only change we’ll see from their best team is the continuation of Rob Holding in central defensive whilst William Saliba is out injured. He’ll be alongside Ben White, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Oleksandr Zinchenko in Arsenal’s back four. 

Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka will be in the center of midfield, providing the platform for Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, and Odegaard to create chances for Gabriel Jesus. Arsenal really will have a strong team out here and should be winning this with ease.

West Ham vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

The Over is favorite in the total goals market at -125, and it’s easy to understand why given Arsenal’s attacking strength. Although I’d potentially lean the other way and back the Under given West Ham’s performances at home, both in terms of defense and their struggling frontline.

West Ham have had Under 2.5 goals in 72.4% of their Premier League games this season — the highest in the league. At London Stadium, that increases to 73.3%, where there have been Over 2.5 goals just four times all season and twice in 2023. 

Arsenal have scored a lot of goals this season and been in some high-scoring games, with 66.7% going Over 2.5 goals. However, that’s largely down to their performances at the Emirates — when they’re on the road Under 2.5 goals has hit at 53.3%.

West Ham vs Arsenal game info

West Ham vs Arsenal key injuries

West Ham: Gianluca Scamacca STR (Out).
Arsenal: Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), Eddie Nketiah STR (Quesitonable), William Saliba CB (Questionable).

West Ham vs Arsenal recent form

Teams	Last five matches
West Ham	W-L-W-D-L
Arsenal	D-W-W-W-W

West Ham vs Arsenal weather

It’ll be cloudy with temperatures in the high 50s at kickoff. Winds will be gusting at 9 mph, with a 20% chance of precipitation. 

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