Croatia vs Canada World Cup Picks and Predictions: True To Form

Progression from Group F at the 2022 World Cup could very well be at stake in matchday two, as 2018 runners-up Croatia face Canada.

The Canadians made their return to the biggest stage after a 36-year absence and acquitted themselves well, despite falling 1-0 to Belgium. Croatia, meanwhile, didn't quite calm concerns around their squad's age in a lethargic 0-0 draw with Morocco but World Cup odds still expect them to get a result here. 

Both Canada and Croatia hold expectations of a fourth game at this World Cup, and this meeting will go a long way in deciding who escapes. We break down the side and total, and give our best bet, in our World Cup picks for Croatia vs. Canada below. 

Croatia vs Canada odds

Croatia vs Canada picks and predictions

Matchday one in Group F ended with Canada at the bottom, with zero points. Yet, the only pointless team in the group was the most impressive of the quartet.

Canada pressed Belgium high up the pitch and the Belgians had a brutal time breaking the press and building attacks. Belgium's 76 touches in the attacking third were the sixth-fewest in the opening Group Stage round, while their 339 touches in the defensive third were 80(!) more than the second-most from Tunisia. 

Canada never let up, with chances coming even before they won a penalty inside 10 minutes. They were far more threatening going forward, finishing with 2.4 expected goals to Belgium's 0.8. The difference in cohesiveness in attack was stunning, when considering Kevin De Bruyne was pulling the strings for the Belgians, with Canada totaling 39 shot-creating actions to just 15 for Belgium. 

While Canada delivered an emphatic statement of intent in their Group F opener, Croatia's meek showing in a 0-0 draw was a reminder of the aging status of their squad and the imbalance of a team that boasts a world-class midfield trio but little else. 

Though Croatia ended with a higher xG than Morocco (0.5 to 0.4), it was the African side that looked more likely to sustain an attack. The Atlas Lions tripled Croatia's shot-creating actions (15-5) and forced two saves vs. just one at their end.

On balance, Canada should beat Croatia based on what we saw on Wednesday. However, you can't rule out the possibility of the final ball haunting this young team again. Taking the Canada/draw double result at -135 is a welcome safety blanket.  

My best bet: Double chance - Canada/draw (-135 at PointsBet)

Croatia vs Canada side analysis

As outlined above, I do think the safest player is the Canada/draw double chance and at -135, it is more than palatable. However, if you're looking for a little bit bigger return, I am highly likely to be tempted into also hitting Canada draw/no bet at +160 at PointsBet. 

The biggest concern for Canada here is the absurd, elite play from each member of Croatia's midfield three. However, the strong partnership Atiba Hutchinson and Stephen Eustaquio formed in WCQ continued against Belgium, with De Bruyne & Co. ineffective, so it's easy to feel a bit more comfortable ahead of this match if you're the Canadians. 

Croatia vs Canada Over/Under analysis

Both Croatia and Canada have concerns around their attack.

For Croatia, it's hard to understate just how unthreatening they were going forward against Morocco. Canada are a more cohesive team with a better goalkeeper and defensive line, so Andrej Kramaric and the Croatian attackers won't have an easier time in matchday two.

For Canada, it's impossible to ignore the chances that went missing against Belgium and the lack of polish on the final balls they played. As nearly every attacking metric would suggest, they aren't hard on chances — and never were in qualifying — so provided any jitters are worked out, greater potency should be expected.

Canada posted high-level attacking numbers against a better team in Belgium and the pre-existing concerns around Croatia appear to be just. Neither side of the 2.5-goal total moves me (Over +110 / Under -138) so my only play in the goal total market will be an Over 1.5 for Canada's team total (+230).

Croatia vs Canada game info

Croatia vs Canada key injuries

Croatia: None.
Canada: None.

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