Miami @ New York picks

Kyle Lowry has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (86th percentile). The Knicks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against New York is a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.2 free throws per game this year when the Knicks are on their home court (11th-least in the league). Kyle Lowry will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually lowers player performance in all stat categories.

Kevin Love has sunk 2.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 more than he's converted from three in all games this season away from home. The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup against New York is a positive one for attempts from downtown; when the Knicks are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have tallied the 30th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.0). The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Knicks have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.2) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jimmy Butler has averaged 35.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 11.6 more than he's averaged over the course of the year. Jimmy Butler has converted 60.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 5.6% more than he's sunk in all games this year without the home court advantage. Jimmy Butler has played 33.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 91st percentile. The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA away from home this year as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc. The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court.

Immanuel Quickley has scored 18.5 points per game over the last 15 games, 4.0 more than he's scored in all games this season. Immanuel Quickley has attempted 5.2 3-pointers per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league. The Heat have played at the 9th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court, which should boost plays for the Knicks. The New York Knicks rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).