Miami @ Boston picks

Derrick White has successfully made 1.8 three-pointers per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among all players in the league. The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Derrick White has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 13.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Max Strus will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production in all facets of the game.

Marcus Smart has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (88th percentile). The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for field goals; when the Heat are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.7). The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics. The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Kyle Lowry has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home. The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Kevin Love has attempted 6.4 threes per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 1.4 more than he's attempted overall this season on the road. The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage in terms of 3-point attempts. While playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).