Miami @ Boston picks

Derrick White has converted 1.8 three-point shots per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 80th percentile out of all players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one for attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SGs have totaled the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.9). The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists). Derrick White has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.4% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.

Caleb Martin has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against Boston may be a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted just 1.3 foul shots per game over the last 25 games when the Celtics are on their home court (11th-least in the NBA).

Kyle Lowry has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (85th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduces player production in all facets of the game.