MIL 8.0 o222.5
IND -8.0 u222.5
DET 5.5 o214.5
NY -5.5 u214.5
ORL 11.5 o198.5
BOS -11.5 u198.5
LAC -2.0 o208.5
DEN 2.0 u208.5
Oklahoma City 1st WESTERN CONFERENCE68-14
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45

Oklahoma City @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Luguentz Dort Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

L. Dort
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.8
Best Odds
Over
-104
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.8
Best Odds
Over
-104
Projection Rating

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, branding this as a favorable matchup. The matchup vs. Jimmy Butler is a good one for three-pointers; when defending other starting SFs this year, they have sunk an enormous 44.8% of their 3-point attempts (97th percentile). In comparison to last year's 80.5% clip, Luguentz Dort's foul-shot proficiency has spiked this year to 89.9%. The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

Luguentz Dort

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.8

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, branding this as a favorable matchup. The matchup vs. Jimmy Butler is a good one for three-pointers; when defending other starting SFs this year, they have sunk an enormous 44.8% of their 3-point attempts (97th percentile). In comparison to last year's 80.5% clip, Luguentz Dort's foul-shot proficiency has spiked this year to 89.9%. The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.4
Best Odds
Under
-120

This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 34.7% on field goals (worst in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, designating this as a challenging matchup. The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Thunder, struggling to draw fouls.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.4
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.4

This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 34.7% on field goals (worst in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, designating this as a challenging matchup. The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Thunder, struggling to draw fouls.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.2
Best Odds
Over
-115

Jimmy Butler has successfully made 62.5% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games, 6.1% more than he's sunk overall this season. Jimmy Butler has made 54.8% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 17.0% more than he's made from three in all games this year. Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler measures in the 84th percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 32.5 minutes per game this year. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. Jimmy Butler has attempted 7.7 foul shots per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.2
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.2

Jimmy Butler has successfully made 62.5% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games, 6.1% more than he's sunk overall this season. Jimmy Butler has made 54.8% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 17.0% more than he's made from three in all games this year. Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler measures in the 84th percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 32.5 minutes per game this year. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. Jimmy Butler has attempted 7.7 foul shots per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Aaron Wiggins Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

A. Wiggins
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Over
+106
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.2
Best Odds
Over
+106
Projection Rating

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year.

Aaron Wiggins

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.2
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.2

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.2
Best Odds
Over
+100

Haywood Highsmith has converted 2.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's made from downtown overall this year when playing at home. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. Oklahoma is a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.9 foul shots per game this year when the Oklahoma City Thunder are the visiting squad (7th-most in the league). Haywood Highsmith will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to improve player performance across the board.

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.2
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.2

Haywood Highsmith has converted 2.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's made from downtown overall this year when playing at home. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. Oklahoma is a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.9 foul shots per game this year when the Oklahoma City Thunder are the visiting squad (7th-most in the league). Haywood Highsmith will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to improve player performance across the board.

Isaiah Hartenstein Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

I. Hartenstein
center C • Oklahoma City
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.9
Best Odds
Over
-125

Isaiah Hartenstein has tallied 30.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 76th percentile. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. The rate of treys hit against Bam Adebayo has been very high (52.2%) when facing fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile).

Isaiah Hartenstein

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.9
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.9

Isaiah Hartenstein has tallied 30.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 76th percentile. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. The rate of treys hit against Bam Adebayo has been very high (52.2%) when facing fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile).

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.1
Best Odds
Under
-105

The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.1
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.1

The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Cason Wallace Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

C. Wallace
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.9
Best Odds
Over
-115

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a strong matchup. This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.4 foul shots per game (9th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Cason Wallace

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.9
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.9

When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a strong matchup. This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.4 foul shots per game (9th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

Compared to last season's 33.5 mark, Terry Rozier's playing time has tailed off this season to 28.7 minutes per game. The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Terry Rozier

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

Compared to last season's 33.5 mark, Terry Rozier's playing time has tailed off this season to 28.7 minutes per game. The most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Heat. The Thunder have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

S. Gilgeous-Alexander
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
28.5
Points Scored
Projection
29
Best Odds
Over
-120

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has registered 30.1 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 99th percentile. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has attempted 7.7 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied 34.5 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup for offensive effectiveness.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Prop: 28.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29
Prop:
28.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has registered 30.1 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 99th percentile. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has attempted 7.7 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied 34.5 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup for offensive effectiveness.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.8
Best Odds
Over
-120

Bam Adebayo has sunk 7.2 buckets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.5 more than he's put through the net overall this season on his home court. Bam Adebayo has converted 41.1% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 12.1% higher than he's made in all games this season. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo ranks in the 87th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 33.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against Isaiah Hartenstein is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 3.7 foul shots per game (90th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.8
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.8

Bam Adebayo has sunk 7.2 buckets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.5 more than he's put through the net overall this season on his home court. Bam Adebayo has converted 41.1% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 12.1% higher than he's made in all games this season. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo ranks in the 87th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 33.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. In terms of offense, the Miami Heat's remarkable 122.4 points per game when playing at home measures as the 3rd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against Isaiah Hartenstein is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 3.7 foul shots per game (90th percentile).

Jalen Williams Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

J. Williams
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.5
Best Odds
Over
-115

Jalen Williams has attempted 19.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Williams lands in the 78th percentile for three-pointers sunk, compiling 1.9 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Jalen Williams lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 31.9 minutes per game when playing on the road this year. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the highest three rate in the NBA this year (46.4%).

Jalen Williams

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.5
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.5

Jalen Williams has attempted 19.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Williams lands in the 78th percentile for three-pointers sunk, compiling 1.9 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Jalen Williams lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 31.9 minutes per game when playing on the road this year. When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fantastic 114.5 points per game when playing away from home places 10th-strongest in the league this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the highest three rate in the NBA this year (46.4%).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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