New England @ Cincinnati props

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. In this contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's collection of safeties has been very bad last year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

The Bengals are a huge 9-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have just 123.8 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week. The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to be a less important option in his team's air attack this week (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (26.3% in games he has played).

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Patriots to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Patriots last year (a mere 56.2 per game on average). The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide. With an exceptional 44.7% Route% (77th percentile) last year, Zack Moss has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the league. In this week's contest, Zack Moss is projected by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets. The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.6%) to RBs last year (87.6%).

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets. Hunter Henry rates in the 84th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 33.2 mark last year. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.4%) versus TEs last year (82.4%).

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are massive -9-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.