Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze is on the main card for UFC 272 betting on March 5 from T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada,
This should be a terrific tilt between an experienced UFC veteran and an undefeated up-and-comer looking to climb the featherweight rankings. Oddsmakers are expecting a close battle with UFC betting lines opening with Mitchell as a -150 favorite and Barboza the slim underdog at +125.
Here are our best free Barboza vs. Mitchell picks and predictions for UFC 272 on Saturday, March 5.
Barboza vs Mitchell fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Barboza vs Mitchell method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Edson Barboza | Bryce Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +300 | +900 |
| To win by Points | +450 | +225 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +225 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Barboza vs Mitchell picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Barboza vs Mitchell betting preview
Barboza is the No. 10 ranked featherweight contender and is coming off a loss to Giga Chikadze last August when he was massively outstruck and eventually finished by punches in the third round. He's just 3-6 in his last nine fights, although those defeats came against highly-ranked fighters including Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
The 36-year-old Brazilian has been competing in the UFC since 2010 and was a lightweight contender for years before dropping down to 145 pounds in 2020. He's 2-2 in the division with a split-decision loss to Dan Ige in his featherweight debut before picking up wins against Makwan Amirkhani and Shane Burgos.
With a background in Muay Thai, Barboza is a versatile striker who utilizes devastating kicks to every level.
Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell enters this fight at No. 11 in the featherweight rankings but hasn't fought since a decision win against Andre Fili in October of 2020. Mitchell took down Fili seven times in a dominant performance where he racked up more than 10 minutes of control time.
The 27-year-old is now a perfect 14-0 in his career, including 5-0 in the octagon.
With a background in BJJ and wrestling, Mitchell is a grappling specialist that began his MMA career with eight consecutive wins via submission. However, he doesn't need to pull off a submission to get a victory, with excellent top control and vicious ground and pound also in his arsenal.
Barboza vs Mitchell tale of the tape
| Edson Barboza | Bryce Mitchell | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 22-10-0 (13 KOs) | Record | 14-1-0 (0 KO) |
Barboza vs Mitchell UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Barboza (+125)
This fight is going to come down to which fighter can implement his style. While Mitchell can be dominant on the mat and is on an impressive winning streak he has gone up against some weak competition. Guys like Fili and Charles Rosa don't exactly move the needle while Barboza has faced killers for much of his career.
Barboza also has an impressive 78% takedown defense and an underrated grappling game. If he's able to keep this fight standing up he should be able to chop Mitchell's base with leg kicks and pick him apart at range.
In a fight that could be a bit of a coin flip, we'll lean towards the crafty veteran at plus money against a younger guy who might have a bit of ring rust.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
If Barboza is able to stay on his feet he should be able to wreck Mitchell in the striking exchanges. Not only does he have dangerous kicks, but he also has crisp hands and will easily be the best striker Mitchell has ever faced. Three of Barboza's last four wins came by way of KO/TKO and that was against ranked fighters in Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, and Beneil Dariush.
That said, if Mitchell can get those takedowns he'll be able to maul Barboza on the ground. Mitchell has nine career wins by way of submission including eight inside of the first round. Although he has only one win by sub in five UFC bouts he almost made Rosa submit with three twister and two arm triangle attempts, and also had a pair of submission attempts on another grappling specialist in Bobby Moffett.
It's tough to figure out which guy will be able to control where this fight goes but wherever it ends up (either on the mat or standing up), one guy will have a massive advantage. That has us predicting a finish one way or another and taking the Under 2.5 on the total rounds.
