Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano is on the main card for UFC 272 on March 5 from T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
This will be a five-round bout and will take place at a catchweight of 160 pounds after Moicano replaced Rafael Fiziev on just four days of notice. With dos Anjos coming in with the benefit of a full camp, UFC betting lines opened with the former lightweight champ favored at -170 and Moicano coming back at +135.
Here are our best free dos Anjos vs. Moicano picks and predictions for Saturday, March 5.
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Dos Anjos vs Moicano method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +340 | +1000 |
| To win by Points | +240 | +360 |
| To win by Submission | +500 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 3, 2022
Dos Anjos vs Moicano picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dos Anjos vs Moicano betting preview
Rafael dos Anjos is the No. 6 ranked lightweight contender but hasn't fought since November of 2020, when he returned to the lightweight division with a decision victory against Paul Felder. The 37-year-old has enjoyed an extremely successful UFC career, claiming the 155-pound title in 2015 and successfully defending it once before suffering back-to-back losses against Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson.
After losing to Ferguson, dos Anjos moved up to welterweight where he went 4-4 with decision losses against the top fighters in that division including Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, and Leon Edwards. Dos Anjos is a very well-rounded fighter that combines high-volume striking with solid wrestling and high-end BJJ skills.
Moicano entered the UFC as a featherweight and went 5-3 in the octagon at 145 pounds, competing against some of the biggest names in the division. He picked up wins against Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar, and Cub Swanson, and lost to highly-ranked fighters such as Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, and the Korean Zombie.
The 32-year-old made his lightweight debut in 2020 and has gone 3-1 since moving up in weight, with his only loss coincidently coming against Fiziev, who he's replacing this weekend. Moicano has crisp boxing with fast hands and he's also extremely dangerous on the ground with nine of his 16 career victories coming by way of submission.
Dos Anjos vs Moicano tale of the tape
| Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 160 lbs | Weight | 160 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 30-13-0 (5 KO) | Record | 16-14-1 (0 KO) |
Dos Anjos vs Moicano UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Dos Anjos (-170)
Fiziev and dos Anjos were originally supposed to headline the UFC Fight Night event on February 19, which is why this fight is scheduled for five rounds. That's just one reason to side with dos Anjos, who has gone 25 minutes in five of his last seven fights, while Moicano has never fought more than three rounds and appeared to gas after trying to push a featherweight pace against Hernandez.
This fight taking place at 160 pounds is another factor in dos Anjos's favor. RDA was perhaps a bit too small for welterweight and struggled against some of the more powerful wrestlers in that division, but a cut to 160 pounds is probably ideal at this stage of his career.
Meanwhile, Moicano is a former featherweight who is having to cut for the second time in three weeks. He also doesn't have the benefit of a full training camp against a tricky southpaw striker like dos Anjos. That could be dangerous since he hasn't faced many southpaws in the octagon and will be open to the body and leg kicks of RDA who loves to attack those areas.
Dos Anjos might have suffered four losses at 170 pounds but they were against the cream of the crop in the division, including Usman, Covington, and Edwards. Expect him to add another tally in the win column against a short-notice opponent on Saturday.
Best bet: Dos Anjos moneyline (-170)
Moicano is a dangerous fighter but when he gets hurt he struggles to find a rhythm. Dos Anjos matches up very well with him in every area and will force him into some tough spots. I would lean towards RDA with confidence even if this fight wasn't short-notice.
But with Moicano taking this fight just four days out and having to hop on a plane and fly from Brazil while doing a second weight cut in three weeks (and not having enough time to properly prepare for his opponent), there are too many factors for him to overcome.
