Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira is on the main card for UFC 272 betting on March 5 from T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
Holland is the No. 14 ranked contender in the middleweight division but will be dropping down to welterweight for this bout, as he looks to get his career back on track. UFC betting lines opened with Holland as a -225 favorite but with early money coming in on him, his odds have shifted all the way to -345 while Oliveira comes back at +260.
Here are our best free Holland vs. Oliveira picks and predictions for Saturday, March 5.
Holland vs Oliveira fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Holland vs Oliveira method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Kevin Holland | Alex Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +125 | +950 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +750 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 4, 2022
Holland vs Oliveira picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Holland vs Oliveira betting preview
Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland will fight at 170 pounds for the first time since 2017, as he tries to correct his career trajectory after a disappointing 2021. Holland had surged up the middleweight rankings after tying a UFC record with five wins in 2020, including three Performance of the Night bonuses.
However, his lack of ground game was exposed in 2021, when he suffered lopsided defeats against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. His last trip to the octagon in October ended in a no-contest after an accidental clash of heads with Kyle Daukaus.
The 29-year-old is a long and athletic fighter with creative striking and explosive power.
Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira is on a three-fight losing streak, most recently falling to Niko Price by unanimous decision in October. It's been a crazy journey for the 34-year-old who overcame a childhood of poverty and drug addiction (and even survived a grenade attack) to compile an 11-9 record in the UFC.
That said, Oliveira's clearly on the downswing of his career winning just two of in his last eight fights. With a background in Muay Thai, he's a decent striker but can be a bit reckless when attacking and doesn't have the power he used to.
Holland vs Oliveira tale of the tape
| Kevin Holland | Alex Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 81 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 21-7-0 (10 KO) | Record | 22-11-1 (12 KO) |
Holland vs Oliveira UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Holland (-345)
Holland hasn't fought at middleweight since a decision loss to Curtis Millender in LFA five years ago. That said, going down in weight class might be exactly what Trailblazer needs.
Although Holland was dominated on the ground by Vettori and Brunson, getting taken down a combined 17 times and being controlled for a total of 37 minutes, he seemed more overpowered than out grappled. His takedown defense should hold up better against smaller opponents, especially someone like Oliveira who has mediocre offensive wrestling.
Cowboy has a takedown accuracy of just 37% and didn't have a single takedown in six of his previous nine fights.
This fight should stay on the feet and Oliveira typically likes to fight at range and can be a bit wild when banging, which will feed right into Holland's sharp striking and five-inch reach advantage. Expect Holland to get back in the win column but if you missed the early moneyline value on Holland at -225, the following method to win prop is tempting.
Best bet: Holland by KO/TKO (+125)
This seems like a get-right spot for Holland as he faces off against an older, struggling fighter who isn't capable of stifling him with relentless wrestling.
Years of damage have taken their toll on Oliveira who seems to be getting hurt more than he used to. Now, he takes on a dangerous striker in Holland who has four knockouts in his last five wins. Back Holland to win by knockout at plus money.
