Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy is on the main card for UFC 272 betting on March 5 from T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
With both heavyweights unranked, this isn't the most exciting matchup to begin the main card for a PPV event, but if you like to see big boys throw down, you won't be disappointed. UFC betting lines for this bout opened with Spivak as a -220 favorite and have shortened slightly to -210, with Hardy coming back at +175.
Here are our best free Spivak vs. Hardy picks and predictions for Saturday, March 5.
Spivak vs Hardy fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Spivak vs Hardy method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Sergey Spivak | Greg Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +300 | +220 |
| To win by Points | +320 | +900 |
| To win by Submission | +340 | +3,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 4, 2022
Spivak vs Hardy picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Spivak vs Hardy betting preview
Sergey Spivak is fresh off a first-round knockout loss to rising star Tom Aspinall in September, which snapped a three-fight winning streak. The Moldovan compiled a 9-0 record prior to entering the UFC and held the World Warriors Fighting Championship heavyweight title.
Spivak is 4-3 inside the octagon, with losses to Walt Harris, Marcin Tybura, and Aspinall, and notable wins against Tui Tuivasa and Alexey Oleynik. The 27-year-old is at his best in the clinch and on the mat, where he can use his grappling ability to pull off submissions or win via ground-and-pound.
Greg Hardy is coming off back-to-back losses, getting starched by Tuivasa last July and losing by TKO to Tybura on the ground 15 months ago. The former All-Pro defensive end and self-proclaimed "best athlete on the planet" entered the UFC with plenty of hype in 2019 but has never put it all together in MMA.
The 33-year-old is 4-4 in the octagon, although he was clearly ahead in one of those losses before throwing an illegal knee and had another win that was later ruled a no-contest for using an asthma inhaler between rounds.
Hardy boasts impressive power and athleticism, but lacks skill both on the mat and in striking exchanges, and has questionable cardio.
Spivak vs Hardy tale of the tape
| Sergey Spivak | Greg Hardy | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| 239 lbs | Weight | 264 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 80.5 inches |
| 13-3-0 (5 KO) | Record | 7-4-0 (6 KO) |
Spivak vs Hardy UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Spivak (-210)
These guys have such opposing styles but have fought against a pair of common opponents in Tuivasa and Tybura. Although it was a less experienced Tuivasa, Spivak still managed to take him down six times and choked him out with an arm triangle. Hardy managed to wobble Tuivasa early, but immediately left himself open and was promptly knocked out.
Although both fighters were mauled by Tybura, Spivak at least has the tools to utilize a similar wrestling-heavy plan, while Hardy has no skills in that area.
Ultimately, Hardy has an edge in power and his only path to victory is via knockout. He isn't accurate in his striking and will tire after the first round, while Spivac can win by grinding out a decision, submitting him on the ground, or pulverizing him with ground-and-pound.
Best bet: Hardy to win in Round 1 (+500)
While I think Spivac will likely get the win, he simply isn't that good, so I have a tough time backing him anywhere near -200, even against a one-dimensional power-puncher like Hardy. Spivak is also just as likely to win by points, sub, or KO/TKO which makes playing his "method to win" props an unwise bet.
The best betting value likely lies with Hardy, who still has a puncher's chance in this one. We saw him crack Tuivasa in the opening round and he was also able to tag Tybura with power shots and stuff his takedown attempts in the first round as well.
The problem is that Hardy will likely gas if this fight goes much past the first five minutes. Spivak is slow and can be hittable, and we've seen him get sparked in the first round before, getting finished by both Harris and Aspinall.
If Hardy gets the win, it will most likely be by knockout in the early going. And while I would put the chances of that happening just below the 30% range, that still gives solid betting value in this prop, which is priced at +500, an implied probability of 16.7%.
