Ovince Saint Preux and Mauricio Rua face off in a rematch eight years in the making as a featured undercard attraction on UFC 274 this Saturday, May 7. Saint Preux and Rua are battle-tested veterans who are closer to the end than the beginning but are ready to put it all on the line for one more shot at glory.
Saint Preux is the narrow UFC odds favorite to defeat Rua in the battle of veterans at -230. ‘Shogun’ is a live dog at +195 to pull off the upset and keep his legendary career alive.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Rua vs. Saint Preux on Saturday, May 7.
Rua vs Saint Preux fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Rua vs Saint Preux method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Mauricio Rua | Ovince Saint Preux |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +450 | +250 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +320 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on May 4, 2022.
Rua vs Saint Preux picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Rua vs Saint Preux betting preview
Both Saint Preux and Rua have seen better days but their inclusion on the UFC 274 card gives them a chance to shine one last time. Each fighter is coming off a telling loss and is potentially fighting for their UFC careers. The last time these two fought was back in 2014 when Saint Preux stepped in on short notice to blast Rua out in 34 seconds.
Since then, Saint Preux has gone 8-10 and Rua has been relegated to mostly annual appearances against equally faded opposition. Neither fighter has scored a meaningful win since then. They also have shown a decrease in damage resistance in recent bouts, which is why Saint Preux is rightfully favored here.
Saint Preux lands 2.65 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 46% but absorbs 3.07 strikes per minute with a 45% defense rate. What benefits him here is that he will hold an advantage in size, height, and power. Being a southpaw will also open up chances to land a big overhand left like he did in 2014.
Rua is the better fundamental striker by comparison, landing 3.57 strikes at 50% accuracy against absorbing 2.71 strikes with a 54% defense rate. He is also likely to mix in takedowns as well, seeking any opportunity to pound out his foe on the mat.
Recently, both fighters have been out landed by a lofty amount in their losses. Saint Preux was blasted out by Tanner Boser in two rounds last June, being outstruck 33-9 in the loss. Rua was manhandled by Paul Craig in their rematch last November in the standup and on the ground.
Because neither fighter has the resources or the reflexes to stick with a methodical game plan, they’re going to give each other whatever they have left. It doesn’t look like this one will get anywhere near the final bell.
Rua vs Saint Preux tale of the tape
| Mauricio Rua | Ovince Saint Preux | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 230 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 80 inches |
| 27-12-1 (21 KOs) | Record | 25-16 (13 KOs) |
Rua vs Saint Preux UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Saint Preux ML
Paul mauling Rua really should have been the end of the line for him. It emphasized how little Rua has left at 40 and it’s hard imagining him having success against the stronger Saint Preux. While Saint Preux flopped at heavyweight and has struggled to make weight at 205, he’s still powerful and likely to chop Rua down again.
An upset isn’t entirely out of the question for Shogun, but that path to victory involves him staying too close to Saint Preux. Though Rua is the better striker, he needs to land repeatedly to make his mark. All Saint Preux needs is one clear shot to close up shop.
Saint Preux will have a stationary target that has no choice but to engage him to win. That doesn’t bode well for a fighter who doesn’t seem able to absorb a good shot anymore. Saint Preux won’t have as hard of a time finding a home for his big strikes as Rua will, which is why he’ll come up the winner once more.
Prediction: Saint Preux moneyline (-250 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Saint Preux in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ
In three of Rua’s last four fights, he’s been out-landed by a decent margin in the first round. This includes being left in a crumpled heap against Smith in 2018. Inconsistent activity due to injuries and a cracked chin leads us to believe Rua is going to get knocked out.
Saint Preux might need a minute or so to warm up, but with an opponent willing to engage in his danger zone, he’ll have the chance to repeat his victory over Rua in the same manner as before. While it won’t be within the first minute of the bout, Saint Preux will put his strikes together early and bust Rua up.
Considering Saint Preux’s power and Rua’s current condition, it wouldn’t surprise us one bit that Saint Preux gets another first-round win here. We’re going with Saint Preux to get things done by stoppage in the first for a hefty +330 haul.
Pick: Saint Preux in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ (+330 at FanDuel)
