UFC 277 is packed to the brim with high-stakes fights, with the highly anticipated rematch between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena headlining the show.
Not to be forgotten, the preliminaries are packed with bouts that are sure to deliver. Naturally, these fights can serve as strong standalone bets or parlays to increase your haul come fight night.
Here are our free picks and predictions for tonight's UFC 277 prelims.
UFC 277 prelim picks and predictions
Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia
• Prediction: Klose ML (-205)
• Best Bet: Klose by decision (+100)
Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt
• Prediction: Morales ML (-560)
• Best Bet: Morales by KO/TKO/DQ in R1 (+165)
Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves
• Prediction: Alves ML (+160)
• Best Bet: Alves by submission (+400)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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Coming off an impressive win over Brandon Jenkins, a fighter on the upswing will look to carry that momentum forward as it's Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia.
While Klose isn’t a strong finisher, he’s fared well against better opponents and should have an edge as Garcia is a late substitute for Diego Ferreira.
With Klose being the busier striker, he just has to prevent the takedown-heavy Garcia from getting him on the mat.
Garcia averages an incredible 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes, with nine of his 14 wins coming by submission, the most recent being an April tap-out of Jesse Ronson. While he’s aggressive on the takedown game, he tends to leave himself open for strikes, absorbing 4.94 significant strikes per minute.
For Garcia to pull off the upset, he’ll have to find a way to take Klose down and keep him there.
With Garcia coming in late and the strength of Klose’s recent performances, we’re inclined to pick Klose to win.
One thing these two share is that their usual game plan often ends with them getting a decision on the cards, therefore, our best bet for this fight is taking Klose by decision.
Prediction: Drakkar Klose moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Drakkar Klose by decision (+100 at DraftKings)
Michael Morales vs. Adam Fugitt happens to feature one of the biggest favorites on the entire card at -560, and it’s easy to see why Morales holds that status. Ten years his opponent's junior, with a perfect 13-0 record, and scoring five stoppages in six fights, he's a tall order for Fugitt’s first fight in the UFC.
On top of that, Morales will be spurred on by the Mexican fan base in a fight that could be a showcase for him.
Fugitt has finished each of his last six opponents by either knockout or submission but hasn’t shown the destructiveness or explosiveness to even the odds. There may be some intrigue in betting on him as a +430 underdog, but his chances of survival are slim as a late replacement.
If there is a lead pipe lock for the entire UFC 277 card, this is it. As there isn’t much value in going with Morales straight up, the best way to roll here is betting on him earning the knockout as part of a parlay.
Go with Morales and expect a TKO in the first.
Prediction: Michael Morales moneyline (-560 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Michael Morales by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+165 at DraftKings)
As with any previous editions of our preliminary picks, there’s one fight that has a high potential for an upset and generous payout.
For that, we’re looking at the lightweight clash of Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves. This battle between seasoned veterans has the underdog Alves exhibiting better striking power, submission prowess, and overall defense.
While Dober has had a longer tenure in the UFC, this could be a bad style matchup that oddsmakers might not have picked up on. Alves has scored eight submission wins, and four of Dober’s losses have come via submission.
Though this could end up being a banger, Alves might have the right stuff to spring the upset.
At +160 straight up, Alves is an attractive option, and that line might shrink yet before fight night. We’re not only picking the underdog here, but we’re loving Alves to win by submission.
Prediction: Rafael Alves moneyline (+160 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Rafael Alves by submission (+400 at DraftKings)
