Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade is scheduled for three rounds in the flyweight division as a featured attraction of UFC 283 from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Andrade is coming home to a raucous Brazilian crowd, but the tough and durable Murphy has the tools to spoil her parade.
UFC odds expect Andrade to take home the win as a big -475 favorite. Former title challenger Murphy is a decided underdog at +380.
Here are our picks and predictions for Murphy vs. Andrade at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro.
Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade fight odds
Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Lauren Murphy | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +170 |
| To win by Points | +700 | +140 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +550 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 17, 2022.
Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade betting preview
Lauren Murphy might be overlooked a bit here, but she does have her work cut out for her. There is no shame in getting stopped by Valentina Shevchenko — something Andrade and she has in common — but she hasn’t lost a fight otherwise since 2018.
The former Invicta FC bantamweight champion is known for her toughness and bullying style: something she hopes to impose on her smaller, shorter opponent.
Arizona’s Murphy is going to enjoy a four-inch advantage in height and a five-inch reach advantage. She lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes at 34% accuracy. Murphy is extremely tenacious, only ever being stopped by Shevchenko in her almost 13-year career.
Jessica Andrade comes into UFC 283 as the biggest favorite on the card and is moving up from strawweight to face Murphy. While Murphy has gone 4-1 coming into this fight, she isn’t expected to do much against her explosive opponent. Despite the odds, these are two top fighters who can be trouble for anyone on a given night.
Andrade has been floating between strawweight and flyweight for her past few fights, however, she is an aggressive striker who constantly goes for the kill.
She is a former champion at strawweight and has been very good at finishing her opponents within the distance. In her last fight, Andrade scored the first-ever submission via standing triangle against Amanda Lemos last April.
The former strawweight champion does not waste time when it comes to dishing out the hurt. She lands 6.16 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and 2.85 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy. Should she get into her striking rhythm early enough, she’ll be hard to slow down.
Andrade needs to execute early on, not gassing out or getting worn down by Murphy’s size. Murphy might have to bite down and settle in the pocket to expose Andrade’s leaky striking defense. Though the fight could be competitive, the writing is on the wall.
Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade tale of the tape
| Lauren Murphy | Jessica Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-2 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 62 inches |
| 16-5 (8 KO) | Record | 23-9 (9 KO) |
Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Andrade
Murphy enjoys benefits in both height and reach, but she’s 39 years old and won’t have any answers for Andrade’s offense. This looks to be a fight to make the Rio De Janiero crowd happy, and Andrade will be motivated to finish her.
That’s not to say Murphy should be taken lightly. That size and experience will factor into how good Andrade looks. Even so, this is some deliberate matchmaking to make Andrade look good.
Expect Andrade to deliver a win to the delight of the Brazilian crowd.
Prediction: Andrade moneyline (-475 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Andrade by decision
Going back to September 2018, all of Andrade’s wins came inside the distance. She has four knockouts and one submission but has been stopped in all but one of her three defeats after emptying her cannons and leaving her vulnerable. That kill-or-be-killed approach will get the better of Murphy, but the size discrepancy between them should keep Murphy around until the end.
Shevchenko needed four rounds to put Murphy away, and the smaller Andrade won’t match the feat despite her considerable power. We’re liking Andrade to win this by decision.
Pick: Andrade to win by decision (+130 at DraftKings)
