UFC 296 Prelim Picks and Predictions: What Can Brown Do For You?

UFC 296 takes place this evening at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and is headlined by a grudge match between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington for the welterweight title. The last card of the year figures to be another strong night to cap off a fantastic year in MMA.

No expenses were spared for the preliminaries. Bryce Mitchell takes on Josh Emmett in a high-stakes featherweight fight, Cody Garbrandt faces the rugged Brian Kelleher, and a top-notch welterweight fight between Randy Brown and Muslim Salikhov rounds it out.

Here are my free picks for the UFC 296 preliminaries on December 16.

UFC 296 prelim picks and predictions

Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett
• Prediction: Mitchell moneyline (-220)
• Best Bet: Mitchell by decision (+125)

Cody Garbradnt vs. Brian Kelleher
• Prediction: Garbrandt moneyline (-215)
• Best Bet: Garbrandt by decision (+215)

Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
• Prediction: Brown moneyline (-250)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-140)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell fight odds

Method of Victory	Josh Emmett	Bryce Mitchell
To win outright	+175	-225
To win by KO/TKO	+405	+900
To win by points	+525	+125
To win by submission	+2,100	+325
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 14, 2023.

Emmett was already going up against it with original opponent Giga Chikazde, and he’s even more overmatched with Mitchell subbing in. 

While Mitchell is a one-note grappler, he’s shown in his fights against Edson Barboza and Dan Ige that he can handle himself in the striking department. The best chance the 39-year-old Emmett has is to do something he hasn’t done in nearly five years, and that’s land enough shots to get a stoppage.

If he isn’t deterred early on, Mitchell will punch and clutch at will, and Emmett won’t be able to get his offense going with Mitchell constantly smothering him. I’ll take “Thug Nasty” to wear Emmett and his 46% takedown defense out, grinding his way to a wide decision win. 

Prediction: Mitchell moneyline (-225 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Mitchell by decision (+125 at Bet99)

Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Keller fight odds

Method of Victory	Cody Garbrandt	Brian Keller
To win outright	-210	+165
To win by KO/TKO	+200	+440
To win by points	+220	+625
To win by submission	+750	+950
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 14, 2023.

Garbrandt is trying to get on a winning streak and should do so against journeyman Kelleher, but his chin always makes him a risky pick. 

Oddly enough, Garbrandt works at his best when his opponents charge forward and give him a chance to land his big counter shots. Kelleher will do just that, but he’s notoriously difficult to finish, being knocked out only once in his 38-fight career. Kelleher’s relentlessness will work against him as it has every time he’s fought a crisp boxer. 

Garbrandt is still sharp enough to beat fighters of Kelleher’s level without worrying about his compromised chin and can win this fight with his jab and footwork alone. I’ll take Garbrandt to win his second in a row by decision.

Prediction: Garbrandt moneyline (-215 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Garbrandt by decision (+215 at Bet99)

Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikhov fight odds

Method of Victory	Randy Brown	Muslim Salikhov
To win outright	-260	+200
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+450
To win by points	+140	+550
To win by submission	+350	+1,600
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 14, 2023.

As technically gifted as Salikhov is, he’s aging rapidly in the octagon and fighting at a slower pace. Brown may not be on the same skill level as Salikhov, yet his recent performances suggest he has the edge in this crossroads clash. Brown’s setbacks have come against higher-level opposition than Salikhov, though Salikhov’s guile and accurate striking could make things interesting early. 

Brown is likely to fight long and use every bit of his eight-inch reach advantage, and Salikhov’s selective output ensures this fight goes the rounds. Based on what’s available, the fight lasting Over 2.5 rounds is the way to go, and I’ll take Brown to win.

Prediction: Brown moneyline (-250 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-140 at Bet99)

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