UFC 302 Almeida vs Romanov Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Almeida Makes Quick Work of Opponent

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov is a featured attraction on tonight's UFC 302 undercard and one of our select events for UFC betting. 

Almeida stumbled in his biggest test to date in his last fight and can’t dare to falter against Romanov, though I believe that won’t be the case.

UFC odds have Almeida a -270 favorite, with Romanov coming back at +205. Here are my best free UFC 302: Almeida vs. Romanov predictions from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on June 1.

Almeida vs Romanov prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Almeida ML (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Almeida Round 1 (+205 at BET99)

Fight analysis

We saw two extremes of Almeida in his most recent defeat to Curtis Blaydes at UFC 299. For the entirety of the first round, Almeida manhandled one of the best pure wrestlers in the heavyweight division, scoring nine takedowns on Blaydes, and was well on his way to a statement-making victory.

In the second round, however, Almeida made a bad takedown attempt that Blaydes caught and basically beat his face in as Almeida was wrapped up in his failed takedown attempt. He'll have to hope the better side of his game shows up as he tries to get back on track against Romanov.

While the nature of Almeida's defeat was unbecoming of a fighter who can still be a top heavyweight, there's no doubt he's dangerous, possesses excellent wrestling with hard striking, and fights with the intention of scoring a finish. His tactical shortcomings did cost him a shot at the interim heavyweight title, but it’ll take quite a few of those to get knocked off by the inconsistent Romanov.

A few years ago, Romanov was a contender to watch, but an upset loss to Marcin Tybura followed by an ugly loss to Alexander Volkov shut the door on him. An uninspired performance in victory over Blagoy Ivanov didn't do much to change that perception.

Romanov simply doesn't have the wrestling chops to keep Almeida off him, and Almeida is likely to get the jump on him in the striking department as well.

With how quickly Almeida comes out of the gates and generates offense, Romanov's best chances will come from surprising him with a takedown and hoping he stays in a dominant position on the ground. The minute Almeida gets him on the mat via takedown or knockdown, it’s going to get ugly in a hurry.

In every major comparable category between them, Romanov is a full level beneath Almeida, and it won’t take long for it to show when the bell rings. I like Almeida to get back on track with a dominant win over Romanov.

Best best analysis

Romanov relished being the bully aggressor to the point where he has never looked confident in situations where he’s had to fight back.

Tybura and Volkov picked him apart and sapped the fight out of him, and Almeida is coming into this fight playing the bully, which we’ll see right away. Romanov’s takedown defense is a paltry 20%, and he also hasn’t looked like he’s prioritizing his conditioning in recent training camps.

There isn’t anything Romanov has done lately to suggest he can stop the bull rush and avoid getting put on the mat. Almeida is a resourceful fighter in most cases, though he’ll have a clearer path to victory here than in previous fights, and he’ll impose his athleticism and power on Romanov by quickly closing the distance and making him stuff takedowns.

Already uneasy fighting off the back foot, Romanov is either getting lit up with some stiff strikes or will be unable to stop the wrestling onslaught and hit the canvas. Once Almeida gets him down, there might be a chance Romanov can get back to standing, but he’ll already be so exhausted that the next wrestling salvo leads to him getting choked out.

My best bet for the fight is that Almeida wastes no time here, putting Romanov out before the end of the first round.

Almeida vs Romanov odds

Method of Victory	Almeida	Romanov
To win outright	-280	+215
To win by KO/TKO	+325	+550
To win by points	+475	+850
To win by submission	+130	+950
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-1.

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Almeida vs Romanov tale of the tape

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