UFC 303 Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Bank on the Brazilian in Saturday's Co-Main Bout

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes is the co-main event for UFC 303 betting tonight from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This should be a banger between a pair of Top-15 featherweights, as a former title challenger in Ortega faces a fast-rising star in Lopes.

This is expected to be a close fight, with UFC odds installing Lopes as a -145 favorite and Ortega coming back at +115. Here are my best Ortega vs. Lopes predictions for June 29.

Ortega vs Lopes prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Lopes moneyline (-140 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

My initial thought was that Brian Ortega was heavily undervalued in this spot. After all, he's 8-3 in the UFC, with his only defeats coming by injury or in title fights, and this is a big step up for the 29-year-old Lopes, who entered the UFC just a year ago. However, the more I break down the fighting styles of these two, the more I like Diego Lopes. 

Keep in mind that Lopes has already faced a highly-ranked featherweight, and he did it in his UFC debut on short notice. While he was unable to upset Movsar Evloev as a +675 underdog, he fought an extremely competitive bout and earned Fight of the Night honors for his efforts. Since then. the 29-year-old Brazilian has reeled off three straight first-round finishes, most recently knocking out Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300. 

Although Ortega is coming off a third-round submission win against Yair Rodriguez, he was pieced up in the standup against Rodriguez and won't be able to rely on his grappling versus Lopes. His opponent is also the faster and more powerful striker, while Ortega is hittable and has absorbed a lot of damage in his career. 

In addition, Ortega has said that he plans to move up to lightweight. Taking a short-notice fight when you have one foot out the door of a division suggests that the weight cut is getting to be too much for the 33-year-old Ortega.

That has me leaning towards the younger Lopes at a decent price.

Best best analysis

While I expect Lopes to win, I'd be surprised if his streak of early stoppages continues. While his knockout of Yusuf was impressive, his other finishes came against 37-year-old Gavin Tucker, and Pat Sabatini — who is chinny and has terrible striking defense. 

Don't forget that before Lopes' recent three-fight winning streak, seven of his previous nine fights went past the midway point of Round 3 — and many of those came against mediocre competition. He won't find it easy to finish Ortega, who is one of the toughest tests of his career and is known for his durability.

Ortega has been finished just twice in his career, by doctor's stoppage after going 20 minutes against Max Holloway, and when he dislocated his shoulder against Rodriguez in their first meeting in 2022. Expect a back-and-forth battle with plenty of grappling exchanges that should result in this bout going Over 2.5 rounds. 

Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes odds

Method of Victory	Ortega	Lopes
To win outright	+115	-145
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+290
To win by points	+315	+335
To win by submission	+625	+525
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-29.

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Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes tale of the tape

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