UFC 303 Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Dolidze Dominates

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze takes place on the UFC 303 undercard taking place tonight. 

Former light-heavyweight title contender Smith hopes to keep his career alive against late substitute Dolidze, eager to break his two-fight losing streak and get some momentum of his own.

UFC odds have Dolidze a -140 favorite, with Smith a +115 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze predictions for June 29.

Smith vs Dolidze prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Dolidze moneyline (-145 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Dolidze by KO or sub (+200 at BET99)

Fight analysis

It seems the reports of Smith's demise were largely exaggerated. After a series of poor performances had it looking like Smith was past the point of no return in his decorated MMA career, he looked fantastic in disposing of Vitor Petrino in his most recent win.

It was hard to imagine Smith having any sort of luck against Carlos Ulberg, his original opponent, but he instead faces middleweight contender Dolidze, who is on a two-fight skid and coming up in weight on short notice.

At middleweight, Dolidze seemed to have the makings of a strong, well-rounded fighter with good striking power and respectable grappling, but his last two fights have seen him up the competition level and taking convincing losses to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov.

Smith is hanging on by a thread, but there's still enough left in the tank where he can still beat up second-tier fighters. Smith's losses over the years have come against the upper tier of the light heavyweight division and explosive fighters that can detonate his weak chin, but when he's faced off against the level below, he can be a problem.

Smith is strong enough and long enough to keep Dolidze outside, but Dolidze doesn't have to rely on striking to win like Ulberg. If Dolidze lands on Smith's glass jaw, there's a chance he could put him to sleep or, at the very least, buzz him badly to lead to a knockdown.

Dolidze can grapple when he needs to, and the fact he can fight at a faster pace than Smith can deal with means he could force his way inside and have his options on how he wants to unpack his offense. This is a very different style of opponent for Smith to take on such short notice.

Dolidze will likely only need to shed a few pounds to be within the light-heavyweight limit. He'll push the pace and find a way inside to land something that will put Smith in danger.

Best best analysis

Dolidze has 10 finishes in 12 wins, with seven of those coming by knockout. Smith most often loses his fights by KO, suffering 11 of them in 19 total defeats.

With Smith's notably bad chin and his recent habit of fighting conservatively so he doesn't get caught up in wild exchanges, he often resorts to fighting in survival mode so he can find counter-striking opportunities or lure his opponents to the mat where he hunts for submissions on his back.

None of that is a winning combination in this fight. If at any point Dolidze gets inside and Smith can't fight him off, he'll get blasted and finished, whether it's standing or on the ground.

Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze odds

Method of Victory	Smith	Dolidze
To win outright	+115	-140
To win by KO/TKO	+400	+295
To win by points	+380	+235
To win by submission	+730	+790
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-29.

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Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze tale of the tape

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