UFC 305 is taking place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia and is headlined by a grudge match the world has been waiting for as middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis seeks to end the run of Israel Adesanya as a major player once and for all.
With the UFC hitting Australia, the local talent is set to show out in a big way and leave the hometown crowd happy on the prelims based on the UFC odds.
Here are my best free picks for the UFC 305 preliminaries on Saturday, August 17.
UFC 305 prelim picks and predictions
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
• Prediction: Nolan moneyline (-1,100 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Nolan by KO or decision (-500 at BET99)
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
• Prediction: Tafa moneyline (-125 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Tafa by KO (+130 at BET99)
Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos
• Prediction: Santos moneyline (-145 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-250 at BET99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 305 prelim odds and picks
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nolan | Reyes |
| To win outright | -1,200 | +640 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -380 | +1,450 |
| To win by decision | +1,050 | +1,450 |
| To win by submission | +575 | +2,900 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 8-17.
Alex Reyes has fought once in six years, and I had to do a double take because I can’t believe the UFC found it necessary to reach this deep to find someone for this card.
Tom Nolan is coming off a first-round knockout win over Victor Martinez and looks decent enough, which is a lot more than I can say about 37-year-old Reyes. Reyes was brought out of exile last September and was knocked out by Charlie Campbell, and was also knocked out by Mike Perry back in 2018.
If Nolan can’t get Reyes out in the first round, it will be an upset in and of itself. Expect Nolan to get the jump on Reyes and put him out early for an easy knockout win.
Prediction: Nolan moneyline (-1,100 at BET99)
Best Bet: Nolan by KO or decision (-500 at BET99)
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Tafa | Walker |
| To win outright | -125 | +100 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +130 | +475 |
| To win by decision | +575 | +240 |
| To win by submission | +2,000 | +950 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 8-17.
While Junior Tafa missed his chance to put himself on the map as a late substitute against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, he will get back on track against Valter Walker.
Tafa puts everything he has in his strikes whereas Walker doesn’t seem to have any striking power, and that doesn’t bode well in the heavyweight division where it is a certainty that you’ll get hit by something big.
Walker does have good takedowns and wrestling, which could give Tafa trouble being that he does not defend well against takedowns, but getting inside Tafa’s range will result in Walker getting his lights put out. I’ll take Tafa by knockout in this one.
Prediction: Tafa moneyline (-125 at BET99)
Best Bet: Tafa by KO (+130 at BET99)
Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | O'Neill | Santos |
| To win outright | +120 | -150 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +700 | +1,000 |
| To win by decision | +255 | +135 |
| To win by submission | +800 | +525 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 8-17.
Casey O’Neill has lost her last two in a row and Luana Santos is on the come up. This is a step up in class for Santos, but she is the harder striker and could mix in some takedowns to make things difficult for O’Neill. Though O’Neill is crafty and has a heavy workrate, she doesn’t hit hard enough to make her opponents hesitate offensively and can get taken down as a result.
If anyone will slow down after a series of exchanges, it will be O’Neill. However, her chin is rock solid and Santos could find herself being outworked if she tries chasing a finish. While I feel Santos should get the win, I’m more confident that this fight goes over 2.5 rounds.
Prediction: Santos moneyline (-145 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-240 at BET99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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