UFC 307: Ketlen Vieira vs Kayla Harrison Odds, Picks & Predictions

Kayla Harrison is seemingly destined to challenge for the bantamweight title after just one fight in the UFC, and she can further those claims by beating the tested and skilled Ketlen Vieira.

Though Vieira isn’t without a path to victory, there will be no denying Harrison ahead of their UFC 307 clash on October 5. UFC odds have Harrison a massive favorite at -1,100 and Vieira is a +625 underdog.

Here are my best free UFC 307: Harrison vs. Vieira predictions from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

Vieira vs Harrison prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Harrison moneyline (-1,100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight will not go the distance (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

We saw Harrison blitz Holly Holm, who, despite her age, is still a very good fighter and has continued to compete at a high level because she can make anyone look bad. Holm had no answer for Harrison, who wrestled her to the mat and secured a submission. Harrison is reminding people of how dominant Ronda Rousey was in her prime, and it’s easy to see why with her size and incomparable Judo skills.

While an argument could be made that Vieira has better striking, she is also a solid Judo practitioner like Harrison and prefers to fight up close to land her trips and takedowns. If Vieira is to have any chance of scoring an upset, she must avoid the mat at all costs, striking and moving in ways that don't get misinterpreted as retreating by the judges.

It isn’t that Harrison has terrible striking, but it’s not going to be what wins her fights. She makes life very difficult for opponents once she gets them on the ground.

There’s a sense of inevitability that Harrison will either overwhelm Vieira in the clinch or bully her to the cage to maul her. Maybe Vieira will find that she has no choice but to grapple, and while it’s her strongest card, it's unlikely she'll outmaneuver a two-time gold medalist.

I don’t doubt that Vieira can be a stubborn opponent for Harrison considering her excellent takedown defense, but Harrison’s going to be right on her from the start and I don’t see much in her technique to create the necessary separation to avoid the mat.

Harrison is a massive favorite, and while I feel Vieira is being slightly underrated given her experience, I’m picking the favorite to book her title shot with a win.

Best best analysis

Vieira has been out of the octagon for a year, and she might not be as sharp out of the gate as she’ll need to be with the card taking place at a higher elevation.

Harrison will be right on her, and we’ll see how long Vieira can keep her at a distance before they tie up and jockey for positioning on the ground.

Since Vieira relies on a physically assertive style herself, she'll likely play right into Harrison's heavy hands soon enough. I’m expecting a finish here, so my best bet is that the fight does not go the distance.

Ketlen Vieira vs Kayla Harrison odds

Method of Victory	Vieira	Harrison
To win outright	+600	-1,100
To win by KO/TKO	+5,000	+230
To win by decision	+1,050	+105
To win by submission	+3,300	+275
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-5.

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Ketlen Vieira vs Kayla Harrison tale of the tape

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