UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva Odds, Picks & Predictions

Karine Silva faces off against Viviane Araujo in a bantamweight clash serving as one of our featured attractions on the UFC 309 undercard. Silva continues her climb up the ladder and meets the well-rounded Araujo at the crossroads.

UFC odds have Silva as a -270 favorite, and Araujo is a +205 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Silva vs. Araujo from Madison Square Garden in New York.

Araujo vs Silva prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Silva moneyline (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Silva by decision (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

By all accounts, Karine Silva is looking like the real deal. She has solid grappling and BJJ skills, deceptive striking power, and relentless forward pressure.

While she’s more comfortable grappling than striking, there’s a good balance between the two that's carried her this far and should edge her closer to a major fight as long as she keeps winning. Viviane Araujo may no longer be in her prime, but she’s a capable veteran who can still show up in a big way from time to time.

Silva is a bulldog. She charges forward, bullies her opponents back to the cage, and shoots for takedowns in the center of the octagon, where she becomes very aggressive and taxing for her opponents. In her last four fights, Silva has scored eight takedowns and won three of those fights by submission.

Overall, Silva is landing 3.59 takedowns per fight with a 72% success rate, and she attempts 2.2 submissions per fight on average. She’s a dynamic fighter with real finishing skills, but Araujo’s durability might be a significant test for her.

While Araujo has struggled with consistency since 2021, she's tough and resilient. She’s never been finished since joining the UFC in 2019, despite being in taxing battles where she’s taken damage and stayed in the fight.

She defends 78% of takedowns, has solid submission defense, and her chin has held up well — even as she tends to fade in later rounds. Her last fight was a decision loss to Natalia Silva, where she started strong but ran out of gas and got outworked. At 37, she can’t afford another loss, especially as she hasn’t put together a complete performance since her 2021 win over Roxanne Modafferi.

Silva is likely to wear Araujo down with her pressure and grappling. While Araujo might stuff a few takedown attempts early, Silva will inevitably get her to the mat as the fight progresses. Araujo’s striking is more about volume than power, so Silva can stay in the pocket, moving forward and setting up takedowns, especially as Araujo begins to tire.

Best best analysis

Given Araujo’s durability and solid submission defense, Silva winning by decision seems the most likely outcome. If Silva manages to secure a finish early, it'll be very telling of her abilities, but for now, I’m betting on Araujo surviving and getting outclassed, with Silva taking the win by decision.

Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva odds

Method of Victory	Araujo	Silva
To win outright	+230	-300
To win by KO/TKO	+1800	+730
To win by decision	+325	+100
To win by submission	+1800	+335
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16.

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Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva tale of the tape

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