Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on February 25 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This is a pivotal bout for both fighters, with Muniz looking to earn a fight against a Top-10 opponent and Allen hoping to break into the rankings. UFC betting odds for this matchup opened as a pick'em but money has poured in on Muniz, who is now at -225 with Allen coming back at +190.
Here are my best free Muniz vs. Allen picks and predictions for Saturday.
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen fight odds
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | -250 | +190 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +125 | +850 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 23, 2023.
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen betting preview
Andre Muniz is the No. 11 ranked middleweight contender and is on a nine-fight winning streak. In his latest bout, he defeated Uriah Hall by unanimous decision and was able to take Hall down four times while controlling him for 10 minutes.
In Muniz's previous three bouts, he racked up first-round submission victories against Eryk Anders, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, and Bartosz Fabinski.
Muniz is a BJJ specialist with elite grappling ability. While he has holes in his striking, his Muay Thai out-of-the-southpaw stance is more than good enough to set up his takedowns.
Brendan Allen has won three fights in a row and is coming off a first-round submission win against Krzysztof Jotko that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
The 27-year-old has compiled a 9-2 record in the octagon and was formerly the LFA middleweight champ.
Allen began his career as a grappling specialist and has racked up 11 wins by way of submission. However, his striking really improved under renowned coach Henri Hooft and he has become a well-rounded threat in different areas on the mat.
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen tale of the tape
| Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 23-4 (4 KO) | Record | 20-5 (5 KO) |
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Muniz ML
Allen's striking has definitely improved, and he also has plenty of experience matching up against southpaws like Muniz. The 27-year-old loves to attack the body with kicks and that's going to be an option for him on Saturday thanks to his unorthodox stance.
However, while Allen has improved his striking, he doesn't really have the power to threaten Muniz on his feet. He also doesn't have great takedown defense, which we saw in his bout against Jacob Malkoun where he was taken down seven times.
Muniz is relentless with his takedowns, and with the smaller octagon at the Apex, he should be able to get his hands on Allen and secure the win.
Prediction: Muniz ML (-220 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Muniz by submission
Allen is a good grappler, but it might actually work against him in this fight. Allen has said that Muniz has "met his match" in grappling, and confidence could be an issue with his opponent looking even more dangerous in that area.
#UFCVegas70's Brendan Allen: Andre Muniz 'has met his match' in grappling https://t.co/y50s6DzWkw
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) February 23, 2023
If Allen tries to prevent takedowns and keep this fight standing up, he has a shot. However, if he shows a willingness to engage on the mat, he will find himself in trouble.
Allen has a tendency to get into bad positions on the mat but has been able to reverse them against inferior grapplers. That approach won't work against a strong opponent like Muniz.
With 12 of Muniz's last 16 wins coming by way of submission, back him to win by sub again on Saturday.
Pick: Muniz by submission (+125 at FanDuel)
