Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac is the headline event for UFC Fight Night betting this evening.
This bout between Top-15 heavyweights was originally scheduled for November before Lewis dropped out due to an illness. UFC odds opened with this matchup at close to a pick’em ,but swung to favor Spivac at -188 by November. They reopened with an even wider difference with Spivak now at -225 and Lewis coming back at +190.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac picks and predictions for February 4 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac fight odds
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +240 | +135 |
| To win by Points | +1,300 | +600 |
| To win by Submission | +3,900 | +360 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 1, 2023.
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac betting preview
Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis is coming off a loss to Sergei Pavlovich last summer when he was finished by a flurry of unanswered punches in the opening round. He has now lost three of his last four fights, with all of those defeats coming by way of knockout.
A former title contender, Lewis appears to be on the downward slope of his career and has become more of a gatekeeper in the division. His conditioning and skills are subpar, but he has incredible strength and punching power, with a UFC record 13 knockouts to his name.
Lewis is a massive fighter who used to walk around at 290 pounds before cutting to 265 for the weigh-in. However, recent images on social media indicate that he's lost significant weight which could mean a fitter Black Beast.
Derrick Lewis looks like he’s ready for welterweight ???? pic.twitter.com/vf9YB2ygIM
— Terrance McKinney (@twrecks155) January 7, 2023
Serghei Spivac is the No. 12 ranked heavyweight and is on a two-fight winning streak after knocking out Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy.
The "Polar Bear" has won five of his last six fights, with his lone defeat during that span coming against the highly-talented Tom Aspinall. The Moldovan compiled a 9-0 record prior to entering the UFC and held the World Warriors Fighting Championship heavyweight title.
The 28-year-old is at his best in the clinch and on the mat, where he can use his grappling ability to pull off submissions or win via ground and pound.
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac tale of the tape
| Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 265 lbs | Weight | 244 lbs |
| 79 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 26-10-1 (21 KO) | Record | 15-3 (7 KO) |
Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Spivac
Spivac isn't a high-end striker, but he has improved his boxing enough that opponents have to respect his standup and can't sell out to stop the takedown.
His jab looked much sharper and quicker against Sakai, and he should be able to disrupt Lewis' swinging punches with it. When Lewis closes the gap and tries to turn this into a brawl, Spivac will be able to go for body wraps and implement his grappling.
While it looks like Lewis might be in the best shape of his life according to pics on social media, I'll believe it when I see it at the weigh-in. Even if he has lost weight and might have better cardio, a drop in mass would also affect his strength and power — the best traits he possesses.
In the past, he used his raw strength to power up from takedowns and less bulk would compromise that ability against a grappler like Spivac.
Lewis will be a live dog so long as he has one-punch knockout power, but he's been absorbing a lot of damage lately, and Spivac has momentum and more paths to victory.
Prediction: Spivac moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Spivac by KO/TKO, DQ, or submission
Regardless of who you're backing to win this fight, it makes sense to grab the bigger payout and bet them to win inside the distance. Lewis has already been in nine fights scheduled for five rounds. None of them went past 19 minutes, and six of them ended within the first two rounds.
Lewis can be tough to control on the mat, but Spivac is relentless with his takedown attempts and uses more trips and sweeps than a conventional wrestler. Eventually, he'll tire out Lewis, who won't be able to respond to strikes on the ground or defend submission attempts.
Lewis is now almost 38 years old and has taken a lot of punishment in three of his last four fights. His chin might be gone in the twilight years of his career.
I like Spivac to get the finish eventually, and although three of his last four wins have come by way of KO/TKO, he also has six submission victories in his career. I'll back him to win by knockout or sub at -150.
Pick: Spivac inside the distance (-150 at bet365)
