Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas Odds, Picks & Predictions

UFC Fight Night returns on Saturday night at the Apex, headlined by a main event bout between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas.

This isn't the most thrilling fight for MMA fans to start 2025 with, but it presents great betting value between a pair of Top-10 strawweights. UFC odds have Ribas listed as a -200 favorite, with Dern coming back at +150. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas predictions for January 11. 

Dern vs Ribas prediction and pick

• Fight Prediction
  Ribas moneyline (-200 at BET99)
  
  
• Best Bet
  Ribas by decision (-115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

These fighters faced off near the start of their UFC careers back in 2019 with Amanda Ribas winning by unanimous decision. While both fighters have made improvements since then, I haven't seen enough to indicate that we'll get a different result this time around.

Dern has high-end BJJ ability, but her offensive wrestling isn't good enough to get the fight to the ground. Her takedown accuracy sits at a paltry 16%, and she went 0-for-6 on takedown attempts when she previously faced Ribas. She will struggle to implement her grappling against the well-rounded Ribas, who boasts a takedown defense that succeeds at an 85% clip.

Ribas will be able to keep this fight standing, where she has a significant advantage in striking in terms of power, accuracy, and volume. Ribas lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.40.

Meanwhile, Dern has a negative strike differential (3.43 landed to 4.12 absorbed per minute), and her sloppy entries will leave her open to Ribas' crisp counter-striking.

Best best analysis

Regardless of which fighter you like to win this fight, it makes sense to back them to win by decision. Not only did the first bout between these two go the distance, but six of Dern's last seven fights and four of Ribas' previous six bouts have gone to the judge's scorecards.

Dern leaves herself open in striking exchange but she's only been finished once in her career, while Ribas has just a single knockdown in 11 UFC fights. Ribas will use her superior kickboxing to pick apart Dern, but she won't be able to force a stoppage.

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas odds

Method of Victory	Dern	Ribas
To win outright	+150	-200
To win by KO/TKO	+900	+790
To win by decision	+450	-115
To win by submission	+450	+1,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-10.

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Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas tale of the tape

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