Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on February 5, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This is an intriguing matchup between a pair of Top-10 ranked middleweights looking to climb into the upper echelon. UFC betting lines opened with Strickland as a -200 favorite and have since moved to -227, while Hermansson comes back at +175.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland picks and predictions for Saturday, February 5.
Hermansson vs Strickland fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Hermansson vs Strickland method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jack Hermansson | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | OTB | OTB |
| To win by Points | OTB | OTB |
| To win by Submission | OTB | OTB |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 1, 2021.
Hermansson vs Strickland picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hermansson vs Strickland betting preview
Jack "The Joker" Hermansson is the No. 6 ranked middleweight contender and is coming off a unanimous decision win against Edmen Shahbazyan last May. The 32-year-old is 6-2 in his last eight fights with those defeats coming against current No. 2 contender Marvin Vettori (in a back-and-forth battle that earned Fight of the Night honors) and No. 3 ranked Jared Cannonier.
Hermansson is an excellent grappler, with three of his last five wins coming via submission, but he's also a crafty striker that likes to switch stances and set up combinations with feints.
Sean "Tarzan" Strickland is one spot below Hermansson in the middleweight rankings and has won five fights in a row, with his most recent victory coming by way of unanimous decision against Uriah Hall in July.
Tarzan suffered a brutal motorcycle accident in 2018 but returned to the octagon after two years of rehab and moved up to the middleweight division, where he has surged up the rankings with four victories in the last 16 months.
The 30-year-old has compiled an 11-3 record in the octagon, including a perfect 6-0 mark at 185 pounds. He is a high-volume striker with excellent technical boxing and has grown in popularity due to his aggressiveness and outspoken personality.
Hermansson vs Strickland tale of the tape
| Jack Hermansson | Sean Strickland | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 30 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 186 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 22-6-0 (11 KO) | Record | 24-3-0 (10 KO) |
Hermansson vs Strickland UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Strickland (-227)
Despite coming in on a winning streak, Strickland hasn't really faced top competition since he lost by unanimous decision to Kamaru Usman in 2017. It's been a long time since he's faced an opponent with Hermansson's diverse skillset but he does match up very well with him.
Strickland is the more accurate striker with crisper hands and better defense. He's also a pressure fighter, while Hermansson has a history of struggling on the back foot.
Hermansson will need to implement his grappling and ground-and-pound if he wants to win this fight, but that won't be easy. The Joker has a takedown accuracy of just 36 percent while Strickland has a strong base and an 82% takedown defense. Even Usman only managed to take him down twice on eight attempts. Look for Strickland to keep this fight standing up and rely on his boxing to get the W.
Best bet: Over 3.5 rounds (-125)
Although Strickland poses matchup problems for Hermansson, this fight should still be closer than oddsmakers seem to think which has us backing a total rounds bet.
Three of Strickland's last four fights have gone the distance, including his previous bout, which went the full 25 minutes. He'll have a tough time starching the granite-chinned Hermansson, who has only been knocked down twice in his career (against massive heavy-hitters in Cannonier and Thiago Santos).
Hermansson's last two fights went the distance, including that 25-minute brawl against Vettori where he absorbed 143 significant strikes to the head. He'll look to slow down this bout with grappling and clinch-work but likely won't be able to get the finish on the mat because of Strickland's defensive wrestling.
Take the Over 3.5 on the total rounds with these two tough contenders likely battling until midway through the fourth.
