Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate is scheduled for three rounds in the flyweight division as a featured attraction at tonight’s edition of UFC Fight Night on ABC in Long Island. Murphy hopes to force a rematch with Valentina Shevchenko at the expense of the returning Tate, who is in the twilight of her legendary career.
Though coming off a loss and moving down in weight, UFC odds have Tate favored at -205. Murphy, who went on a five-fight win streak before losing to Shevchenko, sits as a +175 underdog.
Here are our free UFC betting picks and predictions for Murphy vs. Tate on July 16.
Murphy vs Tate fight odds
Live odds courtesy of bet365.
Murphy vs Tate method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Lauren Murphy | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,400 | +1,200 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +100 |
| To win by Submission | +1,400 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 14, 2022.
Murphy vs Tate picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Murphy vs Tate betting preview
A rigorous striker with a solid chin, Murphy is big for the division and has top-notch conditioning. In many ways, she has a lot in common stylistically with Tate as she mixes her strikes with aggressive takedown attempts for her offense. Murphy lands 3.58 strikes per minute and prefers to fight up close, looking for body shots and takedowns all the same.
Murphy’s path to victory all comes down to how much Tate really has left and how her body takes the weight cut, so she should pressure her right from the start to gas her out. Tate needs to take Murphy down, but might find success in exploiting her underwhelming defense to escape with a win.
Tate was a trailblazer that paved the way for female MMA and is 1-1 after ending a five-year retirement. While she turned back the clock in an impressive performance against Marion Renau, the clock corrected itself in her next fight where she was worked over by Ketlen Vieira. For the first time in her career, Tate is moving down to flyweight to face Murphy.
Over the course of her career, “Cupcake” has been more of a grappler, where she averages 1.99 takedowns and 1.4 submission attempts per fight. Though traditionally a conservative striker, Tate’s last two fights have been resigned to the stand up. The weight cut might be a task in itself, but if Tate can do it, the size advantage she’ll carry could make a big impact.
Murphy vs Tate tale of the tape
| Lauren Murphy | Miesha Tate | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 135.5 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 15-5 (8 KOs) | Record | 19-8 (4 KOs) |
Murphy vs Tate UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Tate ML
There was a time when this fight would be a mismatch, but Tate is not that fighter anymore. The drop in weight should be a big boon to Tate’s grappling, and should add some power to her strikes. Despite her last loss, Tate can still hold her own in a dust up and Murphy tends to get hit a lot.
Because Murphy can still close the distance and rough it up on the inside, not to mention she’ll be more comfortable at the weight than Tate, she is a live dog. All Tate needs to do is stay composed and try to get Murphy on the ground, which she has shown she can still do with little effort.
There may not be many more winnable fights for her at this stage of her career, but Tate has enough in the tank to pull this one off.
Prediction: Miesha Tate moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Miesha Tate by points
We’re assuming Tate makes flyweight with little issue, and that will result in her shorter strikes to do damage on Murphy. Once she is able to wrestle her down, “Cupcake” will maintain control and do better work when they hit the canvas.
Murphy doesn’t have the power or the activity to discourage her accomplished opponent, and might give her the chance she needs to look impressive against a ranked foe. The stars look like they’re aligning for Tate to get another win here, and she’ll put in a workmanlike performance to get a win on the cards.
Pick: Miesha Tate to win by points (+100 at FanDuel)
