UFC Fight Night Nascimento vs Mayes Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Still No Match for Nascimento

An unexpected rematch between heavyweights Rodrigo Nascimento and Don’Tale Mayes serves as a featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card taking place in Sao Paolo, Brazil.

Three years ago, Nascimento made short work of Mayes and hopes to do so again to leave his hometown fans happy.

UFC odds have Nascimento a -198 favorite, and Mayes a +164 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Nascimento vs. Mayes at UFC Fight Night from Sao Paulo.

Nascimento vs Mayes fight odds

Nascimento vs Mayes method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 2, 2023.

Nascimento vs Mayes picks

Fight prediction: Nascimento

Rodrigo Nascimento revisits his UFC debut win from three years ago as he is tasked once again with putting Dom'Tale Mayes away. Their first fight featured an evenly matched first round with the two trading bombs, but Nascimento stepped on the gas and choked Mayes out in the second. Mayes (10-5, 3-3 UFC) may be the more improved fighter of the two this time around. Though Nascimento’s record looks solid, a loss to glass cannon Chris Daukaus followed by two narrow wins hasn’t done him any favors. 

Mayes isn’t a world-beater, but he’s handled himself well since that last defeat. He has devastating power, but like Nascimento, we’ve likely seen him at his best. All Mayes does is throw bombs, and that could spell trouble if Nascimento gets careless. We saw just that in Mayes’ last fight, having to score a come-from-behind KO win over an ancient Andrei Arlovski.

These two are not that far removed from where they were in their first fight. On paper, this figures to be a bout that could go either way unless Nascimento gets Mayes on the mat. If nothing else, Nascimento’s BJJ should be enough to outpace his old rival once again, and hopefully put him on the path to bigger things. 

The pick is Nascimento to repeat over Mayes.

Prediction: Nascimento moneyline (-198 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-210)

There hasn’t been that much growth between these foes since their initial clash, so we should expect more of the same from their 2020 bout. That event featured frequent striking exchanges with Nascimento’s activity opening things up for his ground game. 

Something hasn’t clicked for Nascimento since then, but Mayes’ one-dimensional offense and tendency to load up shots will allow him to shine. Nascimento is busy enough to sap Mayes’ gas tank and leave him vulnerable for another ground-based finish.

These two aren’t known for their athleticism and their familiarity might extend things longer than a normal heavyweight bout. I’m betting that this fight goes over 1.5 rounds. 

Pick: Over 1.5 round (-210 at DraftKings)

Nascimento vs Mayes betting preview

The once-beaten Nascimento hopes to put a recent run of questionable wins behind him in a rematch with Mayes. After defeating Mayes, Nascimento suffered a blowout loss to Daukaus. Since then, he’s had a no-contest against Alan Baudot, and consecutive split-decision wins over Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi.

Mayes has followed a similar path since his loss to Nascimento. He’s gone 3-1 with a no-contest, though has looked better in wins over Andrei Arlovski, Roque Martinez, and Josh Parisian.

This figures to be a good brawl, and a measuring stick for both fighters’ development. Mayes will have a four-inch advantage in height, though he’ll want to opt from mixing up with Nascimento up close. Nascimento, a purple belt in BJJ, has six finishes coming by way of submission. 

Nascimento vs Mayes tale of the tape

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