Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight from the UBS Arena in Belmont, New York.
This should be a terrific bout between two highly-entertaining featherweight contenders. UFC odds have Ortega installed in the neighborhood of -165 with Rodriguez coming back at +140.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions for July 16.
Ortega vs Rodriguez fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Ortega vs Rodriguez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Brian Ortega | Yair Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +650 | +420 |
| To win by Points | +240 | +340 |
| To win by Submission | +280 | +1,900 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 12, 2022.
Ortega vs Rodriguez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Ortega vs Rodriguez betting preview
Brian Ortega is the No. 2 ranked featherweight contender and is coming off a unanimous decision loss in a title challenge against Alexander Volkanovski last September. Ortega was picked apart in that bout but it was competitive enough to earn Fight of the Night honors, as he almost made the champ tap with a guillotine attempt.
T-City is 7-2 in the octagon with both of his defeats coming in title fights against Volkanovski and Max Holloway. He bounced back from a lopsided loss to Holloway in 2018 with a dominating performance against Chan Sung Jung in 2020.
Ortega is a high-end grappler with some of the slickest and most entertaining submissions around, but he's also more than willing to mix it up on his feet.
Yair Rodriguez is one spot behind Ortega in the featherweight rankings, and like Ortega, he's coming off a defeat that didn't drop his stock in the least. El Pantera went toe-to-toe with Holloway for 25 minutes and while he lost, he put on a scintillating striking display which earned a Fight of the Night bonus.
Rodriguez is 8-2 in the octagon and has earned a whopping eight FOTN or Performance of the Night bonuses. The 29-year-old has a background in taekwondo and has some of the best kicks in MMA, including a wide assortment of highlight-reel strikes that look straight out of a cheesy 90s kung fu flick.
Ortega vs Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Brian Ortega | Yair Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 15-2-1 (3 KOs) | Record | 13-2-1 (4 KOs) |
Ortega vs Rodriguez UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Ortega ML (-165)
While both fighters are coming off impressive performances in defeats to the two best featherweights on the planet, Rodriguez's path to defeat was a bit more concerning. There's no shame in losing in the striking exchanges to Holloway, but getting taken down three times and controlled for almost seven minutes by a subpar grappler is not a good sign.
Ortega was beaten up on his feet by Volkanoski but he showed against Korean Zombie that his striking game has evolved and he was a danger to Volk on the mat.
The difference between these two in the striking department isn't quite as big as the gulf between the two in grappling, which has me backing the better all-around fighter in Ortega.
Prediction: Ortega moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Ortega inside the distance
Rodriguez has some of the most creative and dynamic kicks around but he's been exposed on the ground before. Even a striking specialist like Holloway took him down three times and his career takedown defense sits at just 60%.
Ortega isn't the best offensive wrestler but he is able to close distance with his pressure and granite chin. Once he enters the pocket, he should be able to get Rodriguez where he wants him: against the cage or on his back. From there, Ortega should be able to flow into his grappling and set up submissions.
El Pantera can be a bit reckless with his creative striking and he has been stopped inside the distance before. Ortega is a finisher with six of his last seven wins ending by knockout or submission, and the only outlier was against the durable Jung who was knocked down twice. I'm backing T-City to win by way of stoppage.
Pick: Ortega inside the distance (+160 at FanDuel)
