UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs Benoit Saint Denis Odds, Picks & Predictions

Renato Moicano takes on Benoit Saint Denis in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday. 

Saint Denis is fresh off an upset loss to Dustin Poirier, but he's expected to bounce back, with UFC odds installing him as a -300 favorite for this clash at the Accor Arena in Paris, France.

Here are my free betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis on September 28. 

Moicano vs Saint Denis prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Saint Denis moneyline (-300 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Saint Denis by KO/TKO or submission (-170 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Benoit Saint Denis was one of the fastest-rising stars in MMA before Poirier derailed his hype train at UFC 299 in March. Saint Denis entered that event riding a streak of five-straight stoppage wins but ended up getting knocked out in the second round.

However, there were positive takeaways, with Saint Denis controlling the pace and landing the more powerful strikes early while almost finishing Poirier twice. He was eventually starched, but that shouldn't have been surprising considering Poirier's resume as a long-time contender and BSD's tendency to leave his chin in the air during striking exchanges. 

Fortunately for Saint Denis, Moicano doesn't have the boxing and power to capitalize on that weakness. Moicano is 6-2 since dropping down to lightweight in 2020, but he has struggled against fighters like BSD, who are more physical and explosive than he is. 

Moicano has excellent BJJ but Saint Denis is also very good in that department and has the better wrestling. Most of this fight should stay standing up where Saint Denis has more weapons, is faster, hits harder, and has superior durability.

Some have questioned BSD's gas tank since he's gone past the second round just once in his last 14 fights (a defeat to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos) and faded in the second round against Poirier. However, he was making his UFC debut against dos Santos on short notice and fought at welterweight, and he actually looked sharp in the third round. Meanwhile, he was dealing with a staph infection against Poirier, and antibiotics may have compromised his cardio. 

I think those criticisms of BSD are a bit overblown and with his advantages in most areas, he should win. However, this line is a bit too wide, so steer clear of the moneyline at his price. 

Best best analysis

Since moving up to lightweight, Moicano has only been knocked out once in eight fights. That said, Rafael dos Anjos dropped him in his previous bout and he was also viciously knocked down by Jalin Turner and was fortunate Turner didn't follow up to finish. 

Saint Denis is an aggressive striker who has dynamite in his hands and powerful kicks with three of his last four wins coming by KO/TKO. However, books are sleeping on BSD's ability to find a submission, given nine of his 13 career victories have come by that method.

Moicano has very good grappling but he's been submitted before, and if he gets hurt in a striking exchange, I could see Saint Denis getting a club and sub. Whether by knockout or submission, expect Saint Denis to get the finish in front of his home fans. 

Renato Moicano vs Benoit Saint Denis odds

Method of Victory	Moicano	Saint Denis
To win outright	+215	-270
To win by KO/TKO	+1,400	+115
To win by decision	+1,050	+600
To win by submission	+405	+365
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-26.

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Renato Moicano vs Benoit Saint Denis tale of the tape

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