UFC Fight Night: Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira Odds, Picks & Predictions

Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

This should be a banger between a pair of flyweight contenders, and UFC odds have the undefeated Taira as a -300 favorite, with the former title challenger in Royval coming back at +225. Here are my free betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira.

Royval vs Taira prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Royval moneyline (+225 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Royval moneyline (+225 at BET99)

Fight analysis

It makes sense why a high-level grappler like Taira is favored against Royval, who has poor takedown defense and has been held down by opponents with good top control. That said, this line is a bit too wide when you consider Royval's resume.

Royval has gone 6-3 in the UFC, with his only defeats coming against current champion Alexandre Pantoja and former champ Brandon Moreno. He even got revenge for his 2020 loss to Moreno by beating him in a close split decision earlier this year.

Taira has gone a perfect 16-0 in his career while winning six in a row in the UFC. That said, Taira had gone up against a much lower caliber of opposition than Royval until he faced No. 5-ranked flyweight Alex Perez earlier this year and finished him in the second round.

Taira's grappling led to a leg injury to Perez in the second round, but he was outpointed in the first round, and Royval has the tools to replicate that success.

Taira is a patient and highly technical fighter, but he hasn't been in a dog fight, and Royval loves to make things ugly by causing chaos with his unorthodox striking and wild scrambles. In addition, Taira has never gone past three rounds, while Royal trains at high elevations and has proven that he can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes.

Best best analysis

Although Taira's grappling advantage gives him the edge against Royval, the current moneyline price is way too dismissive of the No. 1-ranked flyweight contender. The opening line had Taira at -190, which made more sense, but with money pushing his price to -300, this is a dog or pass spot. 

Keep in mind that Royval was +160 when he fought Pantoja for the belt last year and was +220 when he edged Moreno earlier this year. Taira isn't battle-tested enough to be commanding a higher price than Pantoja or a similar price to Moreno.

Taira could be a future champion, but at 24 years old he's going to experience bumps in the road along the way, and Royval is a dangerous fighter who can make things messy — especially if he avoids getting finished early. That puts the betting value on the underdog.

Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira odds

Method of Victory	Royval	Taira
To win outright	+230	-280
To win by KO/TKO	+725	+625
To win by decision	+500	+270
To win by submission	+1,900	+130
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-10.

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Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira tale of the tape

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