UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov Odds, Picks & Predictions

Cory Sandhagen is facing off against Umar Nurmagomedov in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

The undefeated Nurmagomedov is the boogeyman of the division, but this is a major step up in competition against the No. 2 ranked bantamweight contender in Sandhagen.

Nonetheless, UFC odds have the 10th-ranked Nurmagomedov as a massive -345 favorite, with Sandhagen coming back at +270. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov predictions and picks for August 3.

Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Sandhagen moneyline (+270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go the distance (-120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

It's understandable why Nurmagomedov is favored here. The 28-year-old is viewed as the next Dagestani great in MMA, following in the footsteps of his cousin and former lightweight champion Khabib, as well as his brother Usman who is the current Bellator champ at 155.

Not only does Umar have the elite wrestling and grappling we've come to expect from Dagestani fighters, but he's also a dangerous striker with lightning-fast kicks he can throw to every level.  

That said, this is a massive jump in competition for him. The best fighter he's faced so far has been Raoni Barcelos, who was 36 years old, has lost four of his last six, and is currently the 32nd-ranked bantamweight in the world, according to Tapology.

Nurmagomedov is coming off a win against Bekzat Almakhan, who was making his promotional debut and is the 86th-ranked bantamweight in the world. Almakhan even managed to drop Nurmagomedov in the opening round, and while Umar quickly recovered and went on to dominate the fight, it'll be a lot tougher to do that against somebody like Sandhagen. 

Sandhagen has been a bantamweight contender for years — going 10-3 in the promotion — with all three of his defeats coming against former champs in Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw, and Petr Yan. He's currently on a three-fight winning streak against guys who are all ranked in the Top 10. 

Not only is Sandhagen levels above anyone Nurmagomedov has faced, but his style is a puzzle Umar will need to crack. Sandhagen is a very tactical fighter who uses his deft footwork to feint and set traps. He also has a diverse arsenal of striking weapons he can utilize at all ranges.

It's also worth noting while Nurmagomedov clearly has the advantage on the mat, Sandhagen's ground game is a tad underestimated. Don't forget in his last fight he had seven takedowns against Rob Font, and his athleticism and grappling will help him in scrambling exchanges. 

While I agree with Nurmagomedov being the fave, this is too steep of a line for a guy who has never faced a ranked opponent or fought more than 15 minutes. It's a dog or pass spot at this price, so lean towards the more proven fighter at +270. 

Best best analysis

Nurmagomedov does have power, which he showed by knocking out Barcelos last year, but that's his only win by KO/TKO since 2017. His kickboxing isn't anywhere near good enough to starch Sandhagen, who has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best strikers at bantamweight.

That said, it's also highly unlikely Sandhagen will pick up a knockout win. Four of his last five fights have gone the full 25 minutes and the only one that didn't, ended by doctor stoppage after the fourth round.

Although Sandhagen has flashy striking, Nurmagomedov has incredible striking defense having absorbed just 26 significant strikes in 46 minutes inside the octagon. His wrestling-heavy style will stifle Sandhagen's offensive output and drain the clock. 

The only way I see this fight ending inside the distance is if Nurmagomedov hunts for a submission. However, two of his last three fights have gone the distance, and even though he controlled Almakhan and Nate Maness for more than 22 total minutes, he didn't attempt a single sub. 

If Nurmagomedov couldn't finish those guys, he won't finish a contender like Sandhagen, who doesn't meekly accept bottom position.  

Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov odds

Method of Victory	Sandhagen	Nurmagomedov
To win outright	+250	-320
To win by KO/TKO	+675	+600
To win by decision	+625	+125
To win by submission	+1,700	+255
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-2.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov tale of the tape

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