UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo bantamweight fight serves as one of our featured attractions on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard and also one of our featured events for UFC betting.

Following a one-sided loss to champion Sean O’Malley, Vera is set for another tough out against former flyweight champion Figueiredo.

UFC odds have Figueiredo a -140 favorite and Vera a +120 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Figueiredo predictions from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.

Vera vs Figueiredo prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Figueiredo moneyline (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Figueiredo to win by decision (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

While Deiveson Figueiredo isn't a hulking juggernaut at 135, he has shown in his fights with Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt that he is perfectly capable of making noise and competing at a high level in his new surroundings. A win over Marlon Vera, who is coming off a lopsided loss to Sean O'Malley, will go a long way in determining how far away from a title shot the 36-year-old might be. Vera is known for his rock-solid chin and ability to hang on in tough spots, but the sheer amount of damage he's taken in his recent fights may be extracting a heavy toll from the former title challenger.

"Chito" is still a very good striker, and Figueiredo had issues with Garbrandt as well as not being able to walk through people's strikes like he did at flyweight. Vera will have a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage over Figueiredo, which could give him the chance to keep him outside and prevent Figueiredo from getting inside to land his big shots and work in his takedowns.

The problem, though, is that Vera is extremely hittable. While his takedown defense is normally solid, he has been getting dragged to the mat more often than usual in his last five fights.

Since moving up to bantamweight, Figueiredo has looked revitalized. His striking remains crisp, his takedowns and submissions are still on point, and despite being five years older than Vera, he looks to have more gas in his tank since moving up in weight. Seeing Vera absorb close to 500 significant strikes over his last three fights without suffering a knockdown must qualify as some sort of miracle, though it does indicate that his defensive strategy relies on staying in the pocket and hoping his opponents get tired from hitting him too much.

Though Vera can hang tough and could keep the fight at a distance in spots, it seems inevitable that he'll get drawn into a brawl, and Figueiredo's toolkit along with the strength of his recent performances makes him the pick.

Best best analysis

If O’Malley couldn’t put Vera down with the seemingly endless volley of strikes he landed on him over five rounds, I don’t see Figueiredo doing it in three. It does seem that with each passing fight, Vera is slipping into the realm of an afterthought as he continues to trend downward despite being in the prime of his career.

Vera is still durable enough to go the distance, but he’s just not going to outclass a still very good fighter in Figueiredo. My best bet for the fight is Figueiredo winning by decision.

Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo odds

Method of Victory	Vera	Figueiredo
To win outright	+110	-135
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+1,400
To win by decision	+300	+100
To win by submission	+850	+1,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-2.

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Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo tale of the tape

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