Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz is on the main card for UFC 263 betting on June 12, 2021
This should be a terrific five-round battle between the No. 3-ranked welterweight in Edwards and one of the most entertaining fighters in MMA history in Diaz.
UFC betting odds have Edwards installed as a massive -590 favorite while Diaz comes back at +410.
Here are our best free Edwards vs. Diaz picks and predictions for UFC 263 on Saturday, June 12 from the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.
Edwards vs Diaz fight odds
| Method of Victory | Edwards | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | -590 | +410 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +145 | +1,100 |
| Win by Points | +125 | +1,000 |
| Win by Submission | +1,500 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 8, 2021.
Edwards vs Diaz betting preview
Leon "Rocky" Edwards is fresh off a no-contest bout against Belal Muhammad in March when an accidental eye poke from Edwards ended the fight. Edwards had looked sharp before that disappointing finish, despite having not fought in 20 months.
Prior to that no contest, Edwards was riding an eight-fight winning streak. His previous victory came against Rafael dos Anjos while his last loss was against current champ Kamaru Usman, all the way back in 2015.
The 29-year-old is a very well-rounded fighter who combines good kickboxing with solid wrestling technique and excellent work in the clinch.
Diaz is an MMA legend who has been competing in the UFC since 2007 and holds the promotion record for post-fight award bonuses with 15. In his last fight, he lost the symbolic BMF title to Jorge Masvidal in November 2019 after doctors stopped the fight after the third round due to a gash above Diaz's eye.
With a second-degree black belt in BJJ, Diaz is an excellent grappler with 11 career wins by submission. But he's more renowned for his ability to wage all-out war with his crisp boxing and volume striking, including the Diaz brothers' trademark "Stockton Slap."
Edwards vs Diaz tale of the tape
| Leon Edwards | Nate Diaz | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 74 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 18-3 (6 KO) | Record | 21-12 (4 KO) |
Edwards vs Diaz UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Leon Edwards by points (+125) - Diaz is as tough as a two-dollar steak and isn't likely to get finished. He's only been stopped within the distance twice in the last 15 years and his TKO loss to Masvidal was due to a doctor's stoppage. If an explosive striker like Conor McGregor couldn't knock out Diaz in two bouts, I don't see Edwards doing it on Saturday.
Edwards is smack-dab in the middle of his prime, is the better technical fighter virtually across the board, and he rarely makes mistakes. And while Edwards has been criticized for recent inactivity, at least he fought in March (even with that bout ending early), while Diaz has only fought twice in the last 55 months.
With seven of Edwards' last nine wins coming by decision, look for him to outpoint Diaz.
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