Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson is one of the biggest fights on the card for UFC 264 betting on Saturday, July 10.
This should be a fantastic matchup between a pair of Top-5 welterweights, and a win for "Wonderboy" Stephen Thompson could lead to another title shot for one of the nicest guys in MMA. UFC betting lines opened with Wonderboy as a +125 underdog, but the odds have since jumped the fence and he is now the favorite at -172.
Here are our best free Burns vs. Thompson picks and predictions for UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
Burns vs Thompson fight odds
| Method of Victory | Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | +140 | -172 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +700 | +310 |
| Win by Points | +460 | +155 |
| Win by Submission | +470 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 5, 2021.
Burns vs Thompson betting preview
Gilbert "Durinho" Burns will try to bounce back from a knockout loss in February when he unsuccessfully challenged Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title. Prior to that defeat, Burns had reeled off six straight wins, including four in a row since returning to the 170-pound division.
Burns has looked much better at the heavier weight and may have been sapping his strength and explosiveness by cutting down to 155. Burns began his MMA career as a world-class BJJ practitioner and grappling specialist but has vastly improved his striking under the tutelage of renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft.
Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson enters UFC 264 as the No. 4-ranked welterweight contender and a win could pave the way for a title shot against Usman after he lost championship decisions against Tyron Woodley in 2016 and 2017. The 38-year-old is coming off back-to-back victories over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque which earned him a Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night bonus.
With a background as a professional kickboxer, Wonderboy is a very polished striker who uses distance, kicks and counters to outpoint his opponents.
Burns vs Thompson tale of the tape
| Gilbert Burns | Stephen Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 19-4 (6 KO) | Record | 16-4-1 (7 KO) |
Burns vs Thompson UFC prediction and betting pick
PREDICTION: Moneyline Gilbert Burns (+140) - Burns was one of the hottest names in the sport prior to his loss against Usman and was even a trendy underdog at +200 in that fight. Although he was knocked out at the beginning of the third round, he had his moments in the early going, staggering Usman with power shots in the opening round. Burns certainly has value as the underdog this time around because his superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu ability could give Thompson fits.
Although Thompson will attempt to stay at range and set traps for his opponent, Durinho's pressure and explosiveness should help him close the distance. And while Thompson's karate style of keeping his hands low makes it easier to disguise where his strikes are coming from, it will also make him vulnerable to Burns' heavy hands.
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