UFC 264 Betting Odds: McGregor vs Poirier 3 Headlines July 10

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dustin Poirier is a -130 favorite to Conor McGregor's +110 underdog price at The SuperBook at Westgate. "We opened this fight a pick 'em, I think it should be closer to a pick 'em, and I see value taking the plus-price on either guy," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers told Covers. "So we will likely close closer to pick than most of the market, unless there is a big bet to alter our position. There's great two-way. Bet count and money are very similar on the side."

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: William Hill US opened Conor McGregor a modest -115 favorite and Dustin Poirier a -105 underdog nearly three months ago, on April 13. Now, Poirier is a -135 favorite to McGregor's +115 price, with plenty of money rolling in on both sides, and much more expected throughout the day for what will be a massive night on the Vegas Strip. "I fully assume we'll need Poirier. I'd be shocked if we didn't. But right now, it's pretty good two-way," WillHill US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told Covers, while noting he expects "monster handle." In a news release Friday, Bogdanovich said: "Sharps are on Poirier. McGregor was a huge favorite in his last fight against Poirier [in January], so how much can you cut it? We opened him near pick ’em, after he was over three dollars (-300) the last time. The sharps are telling us that we didn’t adjust enough." That said, money is running quite close, with a slight edge to Poirier at 53 percent, while McGregor is drawing 62 percent of tickets. The largest wager thus far at WillHill is $52,500 on Poirier -105, to win $50,000, and Bogdanovich is bracing for Conor cash. "There will be McGregor money this weekend for sure. I don’t think the masses have quit him completely," Bogdanovich said. "At one point, McGregor money was unstoppable. But since he has just one win over the past few years, it’s slowed down some. Poirier is no chump. Conor is going to have to have his A-game to beat him."

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: BetMGM Nevada opened this clash a -110 pick 'em April 17, and Dustin Poirier moved out to -135 from there, before dialing back to -130 earlier tonight. Conor McGregor is a +110 underdog. "When we first opened, it was all Poirier money, but it's all McGregor now, lots of $100 bets, $200 bets," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton told Covers. "Tickets are approaching 2/1 on Conor, and the money is incredibly close now, within $2,000. A lot of people are coming into town. I'm gonna guess the moneyline closes closer to pick. If McGregor is favored at the start of the fight, I wouldn't be surprised." The largest bet thus far is a $53,000 play on Poirier -125.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: This moneyline has been close since first posting at Circa Sports on April 12, but it has jumped the fence. Conor McGregor opened -120 to Dustin Poirier's even money, and it's now Poirier -127/McGregor +107 for this lightweight clash. "Believe it or not, most of the tickets have been coming in on Poirier. Double the tickets and three times the money on Poirier," Circa Sports MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas told Covers, adding there's two-way sharp action, along with more early public play on Poirier. "And the public money is gonna come in on McGregor later this week. There's a good chance we'll be taking $100,000 bets on fight day on the app. That'll be our fight-day limit on the app." That speaks to just how well-bet Kalikas expects this fight to be, as one of the first full-attendance major sporting events in Las Vegas since the loosening of pandemic restrictions. "It seems like every McGregor MMA/UFC fight, the handle goes up. I'd anticipate the biggest handle we've ever had on a McGregor UFC fight," Kalikas said. "I think the fight will probably go off with us needing Conor for a small decision."

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA has this fight at Stephen Thompson -154/Gilbert Burns +120, after opening -180/+155. Thompson is taking 62 percent of bets and 58 percent of cash. In Las Vegas at William Hill US, Thompson was -150 earlier today before a $100,000 bet landed, prompting a move to -155, with Burns +135 on the buyback.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Stephen Thompson is currently -150 chalk and Gilbert Burns a +130 'dog at William Hill US, where ticket count is nearly dead even – 52 percent on Thompson – but 81 percent of cash is on Burns. The underdog drew two $50,000 bets, one at +125 and one at +110, for potential wins of $62,500 and $55,000, respectively.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This moneyline has bounced around plenty at BetMGM Nevada, opening at Stephen Thompson -145/Gilbert Burns +120, dipping to Thompson -125/Burns +105, shooting to Thompson -175/Burns +145 and now sitting at Thompson -165/Burns +135. "This one's been a wild ride," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "Tickets and money are on the 'dog. There's a handful more tickets on Burns, and a $50,000 bet on Burns at +120. He's gotten all the big bets. Money is 20/1 on Burns."

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: There's been a modest move in UFC 264 odds on the co-main, with Circa Sports going from Stephen Thompson -150/Gilbert Burns +130 on April 12 to Thompson -160/Burns +140 today. "We're getting decent bets on both guys, several max bets on each side," Kalikas said of this welterweight bout. "But there are three times more tickets on Burns than Thompson. There's just more sharp bets on Thompson, and we're respecting that sharp action. Burns seems to be a public 'dog." That said, Kalikas expects Burns to see his share of sharp play this week, as well.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: William Hill US has this fight at Tai Tuivasa -140/Greg Hardy +120, a modest shift from earlier today, when it was at -135/+115. Tuivasa is taking 57 percent of tickets and 67 percent of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Tai Tuivasa is -135 to Greg Hardy's +115 at BetMGM Nevada, down a bit from the opener of Tuivasa +145/Hardy +120. "This one's not as heavily bet as the top two fights," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "Tickets are about 3/1 on the 'dog, and money is almost dead even."

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: With former NFL player Greg Hardy in the octagon and part of the main card, no less, this heavyweight bout will definitely get some attention by Saturday night. Circa Sports opened Tai Tuivasa -135 and Hardy +115 on June 15, and that's where the price remains at this point. "Nothing major to report yet. We're pretty even to both fighters, and the line seems pretty solid," Kalikas said. "But it being a McGregor card and a Hardy fight, I expect some interest on Hardy as the week goes on. A lot of casual bettors will see Hardy on the card and say, 'He's a 'dog? I've gotta bet that.' We'll get some action, for sure."

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Irene Aldana opened a -160 favorite at PointsBet USA, with Yana Kunitskaya priced as a +125 underdog, and this moneyline has now jumped the fence, with Kunitskaya slim -115 chalk and Aldana -110. Kunitskaya is taking about 60 percent of bets, while Aldana is drawing 65 percent of cash.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The most lopsided fight on this card is also the most popular fight at William Hill US, in terms of dollars wagered. After opening -800, Sean O'Malley is out to a massive -900 favorite, with Kris Moutinho correspondingly a hefty +600 underdog. Despite the huge price, O'Malley is landing 78 percent of bets and 96 percent of money. "O’Malley is a huge draw when it comes to betting," WillHill's Bogdanovich said. "His prices are usually so high, so it’s mainly a ton of parlays to him. But his fights still draw a lot of action. This card has so much potential because McGregor-Poirier and Burns-Thompson are huge already, and the public loves to bet O’Malley fights." In another bout on the main card, -115 favorite Irene Aldana is taking 52 percent of tickets, but -105 underdog Yana Kunitskaya is drawing 69 percent of cash.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: Kalikas pointed to two more fights seeing strong early action at Circa Sports, a women's bantamweight bout on the main card and a men's welterweight bout near the top of the preliminary card. In the former, Irene Aldana opened -135 to Yana Kunitskaya's +155 on June 15, and it's now Aldana -120/Kunitskaya even money. "Sharp action on the underdog Kunitskaya, and now we're seeing some buyback on Aldana," Kalikas said. The latter bout, Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira, also opened June 15, at Pereira -150/Price +130, and it's now Pereira -165/Price +135. "That's an outstanding fight. It's gonna be chaos. These guys are both finishers and fun to watch," Kalikas said. "Early sharp action helped take Pereira to -180, then we had some sharp bites on the 'dog. I'd say -165 to -170 seems to be the sweet spot. We'll probably need the 'dog slightly."