"Sugar" Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho is on the main card for UFC 264 betting on Saturday, July 10.
O'Malley is regarded as one of the promotion's rising young stars and was originally installed as a -500 favorite against Louis Smolka at this event before Smolka dropped out and was replaced by UFC newcomer Moutinho.
UFC betting lines now have O'Malley as a whopping -1,000 favorite while Moutinho comes back at +580.
Here are our best free O'Malley vs. Moutinho picks and predictions for UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
O'Malley vs Moutinho fight odds
| Method of Victory | Sean O'Malley | Kris Moutinho |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | -1,000 | +580 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -290 | +1,000 |
| Win by Points | +500 | +1,400 |
| Win by Submission | +1,400 | +3,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 8, 2021.
O'Malley vs Moutinho betting preview
Sean O'Malley is fresh off a knockout win against Thomas Almeida in March. That win allowed him to bounce back from the first loss of his career last August when he was finished with ground-and-pound after collapsing to the mat due to drop foot.
Sugar is 13-1 in his career, including 5-1 in the octagon, and has earned a Performance of the Night bonus in each of his last three victories.
The 26-year-old is a long, athletic, and explosive striker who loves to push the pace. He's very capable as a grappler but prefers to keep things standing up where he can throw punches and kicks from a variety of angles.
Kris Moutinho will be making his UFC debut after five years on the New England fighting circuit. Moutinho is coming off back-to-back wins and is 9-4 in his MMA career.
The 28-year-old has a background as a wrestler but tends to stand and strike with his opponents.
O'Malley vs Moutinho tale of the tape
| Sean O'Malley | Kris Moutinho | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 13-1 (9 KO) | Record | 9-4 (3 KO) |
O'Malley vs Moutinho UFC prediction and betting pick
PREDICTION: - O'Malley to win in Round 1 (+105) - The odds are extremely lopsided for good reason. O'Malley is a rising star and Dana White set him up with a promotional newcomer on short notice despite multiple ranked bantamweights offering to take the fight.
Moutinho is a tough fighter but was recently on a two-fight losing skid and lost both of those bouts by way of knockout. He's 5-4 in his last nine fights at much smaller promotions and was finished in each of those losses.
That's not a great look as he enters the top promotion on the planet and takes on a tricky striker with knockout power in O'Malley. It's tough to find betting value on this fight but we'll take the lowest-hanging fruit and grab O'Malley to win within the first round.
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