Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson is on the main card for UFC 271 betting on February 12.
This should be a fantastic tilt between a pair of middleweight contenders looking to earn a title shot. UFC betting lines hit the board for this matchup with Cannonier as the favorite at -188 and have since shortened to -175, with Brunson coming back at +138.
Here are our best free Cannonier vs. Brunson picks and predictions for UFC 271 on Saturday, February 12 from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Cannonier vs Brunson fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Cannonier vs Brunson method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jared Cannonier | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +125 | +600 |
| To win by Points | +420 | +320 |
| To win by Submission | +1,700 | +900 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 8, 2022.
Cannonier vs Brunson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Cannonier vs Brunson betting preview
Jared Cannonier is coming off a unanimous decision win against Kelvin Gastelum last August to bounce back from a decision loss to current No. 1 contender Robert Whittaker. That's Cannonier's only loss at 185 pounds, with the "Killa Gorrilla" going 4-1 with three wins by knockout since dropping down to middleweight in 2018.
Cannonier began his UFC career as a 241-pound heavyweight in 2016 and soon moved to light heavyweight, where he went 2-3. The 37-year-old has really elevated his game since moving to middleweight where his strength, explosiveness, and power have made him the No. 3 ranked contender.
Derek Brunson is one spot below Cannonier in the middleweight rankings and is fresh off a submission victory over Darren Till in September. It's been a rollercoaster MMA journey for the 38-year-old, with Brunson boasting a five-fight winning streak earlier in his UFC career before losing four of his next six against some of the biggest names in the division.
However, ever since losing to current champ Israel Adesanya in 2018, Brunson has been on a warpath winning five straight fights — including four in a row as an underdog. A big reason for his recent success is his increased reliance on his wrestling ability and top control. Between 2015 and 2019, Brunson pulled off just two takedowns across 10 fights, while in his last five bouts he has racked up a whopping 19 takedowns.
Brunson is a well-rounded fighter who combines powerful wrestling with knockout power on his feet.
Cannonier vs Brunson tale of the tape
| Jared Cannonier | Derek Brunson | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 186 lbs |
| 77.5 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 14-5-0 (9 KOs) | Record | 23-7-0 (11 KOs) |
Cannonier vs Brunson UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Cannonier (-175)
The key to Brunson's recent success is simple: heavy hands, powerful takedowns, and nasty ground-and-pound. However, there are plenty of holes in his stand up and he has been exposed in striking exchanges during his last two fights against Till and Kevin Holland.
Thankfully for Brunson, he was able to take Till and Holland to the mat and smother them for the majority of those fights but he won't have the same success against Cannonier.
While Cannonier was repeatedly taken down earlier in his career against light heavyweights like Ion Cutelaba, Jan Blachowicz, and current champ Glover Teixeira, his wrestling defense has held up very well at 185 pounds. Cannonier has stuffed 15 of 16 takedown attempts over his last three fights, and even if he does get taken to the ground, he has the strength and athletism to avoid getting mauled.
The Killa Gorilla will be able to this fight standing up where his kicks will attack the lead leg of Brunson and his power shots will connect when Brunson pressures.
Best bet: Cannonier by KO/TKO (+125)
Brunson is an explosive wrestler that hunts for takedowns, but he can get caught on entries, and five of his last six losses have come by KO/TKO.
Cannonier may have shed more than 50 pounds from his heavyweight days in Alaska, but he has retained much of that strength and power.
Cannonier's last bout went the full 25 minutes but Gastelum is known for his durability and has never been finished by strikes in his career. Prior to that, Cannonier's previous four victories all came by way of KO/TKO. Back him to win by knockout again at plus money.
