Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa is the co-main event for UFC 271 betting on February 12.
This should be a banger between a pair of hard-hitting heavyweights. Lewis is the No. 3-ranked heavyweight contender and UFC odds opened with the knockout specialist as a -189 favorite, with Tuivasa coming back as the underdog at +150.
Here are our best free Lewis vs. Tuivasa picks and predictions for UFC 271 on Saturday, February 12 from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Lewis vs Tuivasa fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Lewis vs Tuivasa method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Derrick Lewis | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | -110 | +270 |
| To win by Points | +550 | +600 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 7, 2022.
Lewis vs Tuivasa picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lewis vs Tuivasa betting preview
Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis is fresh off a first-round knockout victory against Chris Daukaus just two months ago. Lewis is 5-1 in his last six fights and has notable career victories over current Top-5 heavyweights Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes, and Alexander Volkov.
The 37-year-old is a massive man who walks around at 290 pounds before cutting for the weigh-in. His conditioning and skills are subpar but he has incredible strength and punching power with a UFC record 13 knockouts to his name.
Tai "Bam Bam" Tuivasa has won four fights in a row by way of knockout. In his most recent bout in December, he starched Augusto Sakai in the second round to claim his second straight Fight of the Night bonus. Tuivasa's UFC career hit a bit of a snag in 2019 after losing three fights in a row but he has rebounded nicely with a perfect 4-0 record over the last year and a half.
Tuivasa is a powerful puncher who sets up his boxing with excellent use of low kicks. Of Tuivasa's 13 career wins, 12 have come by KO/TKO — with a whopping 11 fights ending within the first round. The Australian is a crowd favorite for his brawler style and his penchant for chugging a beer out of a shoe to celebrate his wins.
Lewis vs Tuivasa tale of the tape
| Derrick Lewis | Tai Tuivasa | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 265 lbs | Weight | 264 lbs |
| 79 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 26-8 (21 KOs) | Record | 14-3 (13 KOs) |
Lewis vs Tuivasa UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Lewis (-190)
This fight could be decided by the first guy to a clean shot. While Tuivasa is the faster starter and could soften up Lewis with leg kicks, the Black Beast is more battle-tested and his patience could prove valuable.
Tuivasa's tendency to brawl has left him open on occasion and he was put on skates by Greg Hardy last year before pulling off the victory. He was also knocked down by a counter from Blagoy Ivanov back in 2019. If he wings his punches and gets touched by Lewis like that, he won't be able to survive.
Best bet: Lewis by KO/TKO (-110)
There's always a worry that matchups like this could result in a snoozer if both fighters are too cautious of each other's power (see Lewis vs. Ngannou). That said, both of these guys love to throw bombs and usually only get into boring fights when their opponents try to rely on grappling.
Lewis will be fighting in Houston for the first time since he lost to Ciryl Gane last year and that substandard performance in front of his hometown fans will likely make him even more eager to let his hands go this time.
Of Lewis' 17 wins in the UFC, only four of those went the distance and three of them were against wrestling-heavy fighters. Expect this fight to stay standing up and with Lewis' reach and power with straight punches and uppercuts he should be able to tag Tuivasa when the Aussie throws looping shots.
Regardless of which fighter you're backing to win this one, you should consider betting on them to win by KO/TKO with this bout extremely unlikely to go the full 15 minutes.
