Valentina Shevchenko vs. Talia Santos is the co-main event for UFC 275 betting on Saturday, June 11 from Singapore Indoor Stadium.
Shevchenko will be making an impressive seventh defense of her women's flyweight title against the No. 4 ranked contender in Santos. Shevchenko is once again a massive favorite to retain the belt, with UFC odds opening with the current champ as a -600 favorite and the challenger Santos coming back at +450.
Here are our best free Shevchenko vs. Santos picks and predictions for tonight, June 11.
Shevchenko vs Santos fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Shevchenko vs Santos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Valentina Shevchenko | Taila Santos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +250 | +1,700 |
| To win by Points | +100 | +1,000 |
| To win by Submission | +500 | +1,500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 9, 2022.
Shevchenko vs Santos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Shevchenko vs Santos betting preview
Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko is fresh off a fourth-round knockout victory over Lauren Murphy. That was the sixth-straight successful title defense and the eighth-straight victory for the 125-pound champ.
The 34-year-old is one of the greatest pound-for-pound MMA fighters of all time and is 15-2 in her last 17 fights, with both defeats coming by decision to Amanda Nunes at a higher weight class.
With a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai, Shevchenko is known for her elite speed, precision, and technical striking ability. However, she's also a very strong grappler with 18 takedowns over her last four fights, and seven career submission victories.
Taila Santos comes into UFC 275 riding in on a four-fight winning streak, most recently submitting JoJo Wood in the first round last November. Santos is 19-1 in her MMA career, with her lone defeat coming in her UFC debut three years ago when she lost by way of split decision to Mara Romero Borella.
With a background in Muay Thai, the 28-year-old Brazilian is a dynamic striker with a lot of pop in her shots. She also does a very good job of mixing in takedowns and maintaining top control.
Shevchenko vs Santos tale of the tape
| Valentina Shevchenko | Taila Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 65.5 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 22-3 (8 KO) | Record | 19-1 (10 KO) |
Shevchenko vs Santos UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Shevchenko ML (-600)
Being able to bet on Shevchenko at close to -600 on the moneyline is actually relatively good value on the champ, given that she closed as a greater than -1,200 favorite in each of her previous four title defenses. However, it's worth noting that she actually opened in the neighborhood of -600 to -750 in her last three fights before money poured in on her.
These current odds say more about the respect that bettors (not oddsmakers) are giving Santos, and I can't help but wonder if that has something to do with Nunes getting upset six months ago. Sure Santos has many of the same strengths as Shevchenko, but she's not quite as technical of a striker and looks a bit below Bullet in every skill category.
Santos' fight against Wood was also the first time she had ever faced a Top-10 ranked fighter, and she has never been in a bout scheduled for more than 15 minutes. Meanwhile, Shevchenko has gone up against absolute killers and has often made short work of them while also having the cardio to fight at a high pace for five rounds if she has to.
Prediction: Shevchenko moneyline (-600 at bet365)
Best bet: Shevchenko inside the distance (+130)
It's always tough finding betting value on Bullet, especially since she is equally capable of winning by knockout, points, or submission. That said, while Santos is durable and has never even been close to getting stopped in her career, she's also never faced anyone with Shevchenko's finishing ability.
Santos also likes to push the pace with her aggressive pressure which will leave her vulnerable to Bullet's elite counter-striking and traps. We like Shevchenko to end this inside the distance.
Pick: Shevchenko to Win By KO, TKO, DQ/Submission (+130 at DraftKings)
