Zhang Weili will defend her women's strawweight championship against Amanda Lemos in tonight's co-main event for UFC 292.
This should be a banger between a pair of aggressive fighters that always put on a show. UFC betting odds opened with the current champ Zhang as a -334 favorite with the challenger Lemos coming back at +250.
Here are my best free Zhang vs. Lemos picks and predictions for Saturday, August 19 from the TD Garden in Boston.
Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos fight odds
Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Zhang Weili | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +130 | +500 |
| To win by points | +320 | +900 |
| To win by submission | +550 | +1,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 16, 2023.
Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos betting preview
Weili "Magnum" Zhang regained the strawweight title with a second-round submission victory against Carla Esparza last November. Zhang originally won the championship with a first-round knockout of Jessica Andrade in 2019 and defended it in a thrilling five-round clash against Joanna Jedrzejczyk the following year.
However, she lost the belt when she was starched by Rose Namajunas in April 2021 and failed to get it back when she lost a close split decision in a rematch against Namajunas later that year. Those two losses to Namajunas are the only defeats on her resume over the last decade, with Zhang compiling a 23-2 record (7-2 in the UFC) since 2014.
The 34-year-old combines powerful striking and relentless pressure with formidable wrestling ability and brutal ground-and-pound.
Amanda Lemos is the No. 5-ranked women's strawweight contender and has won back-to-back fights since getting submitted by Andrade in April 2022. She bounced back from that defeat by submitting Michelle Waterson in July before knocking out Marina Rodriguez last November to earn this title shot.
The 36-year-old is the former Jungle Fight bantamweight champion and has racked up a 7-2 record inside the octagon. Lemos is a dangerous striker who is precise and powerful with her shots.
Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos tale of the tape
| Zhang Weili | Amanda Lemos | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| 114.8 lbs | Weight | 114.5 lbs |
| 63 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 23-3-0 (11 KO) | Record | 13-2-1 (8 KO) |
Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Zhang
Lemos certainly has a path to victory in this one, especially if Magnum chooses to stand and bang with her. That said, Zhang has shown the ability to adapt to different opponents, and her willingness to switch camps has helped her continue to evolve as a fighter.
Her ability to out-grapple Lemos gives her a sizable edge in this fight, and while Lemos has an impressive 81% takedown defense, she hasn't faced many fighters with high-end wrestling ability.
Lemos fights with pressure and loves to throw with nasty intent, but Zhang is a bit more technical and is crisp with her counter-striking. That should allow the current champ to win the majority of the striking exchanges while also using her wrestling to dominate the fight on the mat.
Prediction: Zhang moneyline (-310 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Zhang inside the distance
Both of these fighters have crazy finishing power for this division, which is why this bout is installed at -310 to end inside the distance. Since I expect Zhang to defend her belt, it also makes sense to shorten her odds by making her to win by way of stoppage, especially with how aggressive Lemos can be.
Lemos is more than willing to take a shot in order to give one, which could be bad news against a hard-hitter like Zhang. Keep in mind that three of Zhang's last four wins came inside the first two rounds. The only bout during that span that went the distance was a brawl against Jedrzejczyk where she landed 186 significant strikes and damaged her so badly that she was disfigured beyond recognition.
Whether Zhang is able to catch Lemos standing up, submit her on the mat, or finish her with ground-and-pound, bet on her to get this done before the final bell.
Pick: Zhang by KO/TKO, DQ, or submission (-125 at bet365)
