Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on February 5, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This should be a banger between a pair of fighters riding in on winning streaks and looking to break into the welterweight rankings. UFC betting lines opened with Rakhmonov as a -175 favorite before moving all the way to -250 and then settling around -227. Harris is the underdog at +175.
Here are our best free Rakhmonov vs. Harris picks and predictions for UFC Vegas 46 on Saturday, February 5.
Rakhmonov vs Harris outright odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Rakhmonov vs Harris method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Carlston Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | +165 | +900 |
| Win by Points | +420 | +600 |
| Win by Submission | +380 | +550 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 2, 2022.
Rakhmonov vs Harris picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Rakhmonov vs Harris betting preview
Shavkat Rakhmonov began his UFC career with back-to-back submission victories, most recently against Michel Prazeres in June. The former M-1 Global welterweight champion, Rakhmonov is a perfect 14-0 in his pro career with seven wins by knockout and seven by way of submission.
The 27-year-old hails from Kazakhstan and is a Master of Sport in combat sambo. He's a dangerous striker with a diverse skillset and can win wherever the fight goes.
Carlston Harris made his UFC debut with a first-round submission win against Christian Aguilera last May. He followed that up with another first-round stoppage four months later when he dropped Impa Kasanganay to the mat with a flurry of punches before finishing him with strikes on the ground.
The 34-year-old has now won five fights in a row and also picked up victories against current UFC fighters Michel Pereira and Wellington Turman when they were competing in other promotions. Harris is a well-rounded fighter that has heavy hands but is also very effective in the clinch and as a grappler.
Rakhmonov vs Harris tale of the tape
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | Carlston Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 14-0-0 (7 KO) | Record | 17-4-0 (5 KO) |
Rakhmonov vs Harris UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Rakhmonov (-250)
Both of these fighters have looked terrific in their first two bouts but Rakhmonov is the more polished striker and flows more naturally once he finds his distance. Harris can be a bit hittable at times, especially when he looks to implement his grappling. That will spell trouble against Rakhmonov, who does a great job of using knees and trips from the clinch.
Even if Harris does get the fight to the ground, he could find himself in trouble with Rakhmonov's strength, cardio, and sneaky submissions.
Best bet: Rakhmonov inside the distance (+100)
While we like Rakhmonov to get the win, his moneyline odds are a bit too generous when you consider how capable Harris is. That said, with Rakhmonov boasting a 100% finish rate, there is value in backing him to win inside the distance.
Only one fight in Rakhmonov's career has gone past the second round and he's just as capable of knocking out opponents standing up, finishing with ground-and-pound, or sinking in tight submissions.
It's also worth noting that he was able to finish the durable Praceres, who had never previously been stopped inside the distance in his 29-fight career.
