If repeating in the WNBA is difficult, going for three in a row has long been considered all but impossible.
That’s the task before the Las Vegas Aces this season, and they’re going to get every team’s best shot on the way there. The Atlanta Dream and their burgeoning offensive superstar Rhyne Howard are up deck next to see if they can make a run at the champ.
My WNBA picks and Aces vs. Dream predictions believe that Las Vegas’ relative early season weakness is being overblown and that they should be even bigger WNBA odds favorites for Friday’s tilt.
Aces vs Dream predictions
My best bet
Aces -8.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
How good are the Las Vegas Aces, really? That question either strikes you as sincere or absurd, but it’s one that’s being floated around certain WNBA media circles as the two-time defending champs open the season a middling (by their standards) 4-1, with teams like the 6-0 Connecticut Sun finding themselves atop various website’s power rankings.
Much has been made of the ongoing absence of star point guard Chelsea Gray, who remains out with a somewhat mysterious leg ailment suffered during the WNBA Finals against the New York Liberty.
Gray is not only arguably their best on ball defender, but also their steadiest on ball creator. The Aces clearly miss Gray’s floor generalship at times, but their dropoff in overall team quality is being far overblown.
The Aces had a sterling 16.3 net rating with Gray on the court last season — an almost unheard-of level of dominance.
That dropped to 11.5 with her off the court — which is also an almost unheard-of level of dominance.
While Gray is central to their hopes of a three-peat this season, the on/off numbers make it certain that all of A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young were by far the most indispensable to last year’s regular season success.
That’s in part because Young can slot in as a facsimile of Gray’s play to a degree that no one on the squad can for A’ja or Plum, and with a larger role this season in Gray’s absence Young is rising to the occasion.
She’s averaging career highs in points (21.8), rebounds (5.4), and assists (8.2) as she’s made the primary initiator for Las Vegas while maintaining elite efficiency. Her net rating through the Aces' first five games is so high (49.8) that it looks like a clerical mistake.
The net rating gap between the Aces and the Atlanta Dream last season was 17.1. Even accounting for Gray’s absence, I just don’t think the Dream have shown enough growth to hang with the Aces. While this season to date the gap is closer to today’s spread, I’m comfortable trusting the larger sample of the Aces play without Gray, where they’ve demonstrated they’re still an elite two-way team.
Outside of Rhyne Howard opening the season on a hot shooting streak, little material has changed between the two teams to narrow the gap to the level this spread suggests. Adding Tina Charles gives Atlanta some frontcourt depth, but she has no hope of slowing down A’ja.
The Dream also have injury concerns themselves. They’ll be without Jordin Canada’s services on Friday, and All-Star Allisha Gray is questionable with a thumb injury. Without Gray firing on all cylinders, it will be a tall task for the Dream to keep pace with the Aces' league-leading offense.
Aces vs Dream same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces -8.5
Jackie Young Over 20.5 points
Dream team total Under 84.5
The Aces were the W’s best defense last season and Gray’s absence is not enough to knock them off that perch. They are still allowing the fewest points in the paint of any team, while their decline in defensive rating is mostly the result of unsustainably hot opponent 3-point shooting (40.3%) which will normalize in the coming weeks.
With Gray out, Young becomes the team's most indispensable player outside of A’ja. That’s seen her minutes bump up by about five over last season, and Becky Hammon has shown she’s willing to ride Young nearly the entire game if things are remotely competitive. Young, in turn, has rewarded the Aces with rock-solid productivity, scoring 22 points or more in four straight contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Dream odds
Aces vs Dream live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Dream WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Dream opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -8 | Atlanta +8
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -360 | Atlanta +300
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 | Under 168.5
Aces vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis
- Las Vegas opened between -7.5 and -8 point road favorites over the Dream, and that’s risen as high as -9 at some sportsbooks.
- The Dream are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games.
- The total opened at 168.5 but has been steadily climbing. It’s available as high as 173 as of Friday morning.
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Aces vs Dream trend
Atlanta is 1-3 ATS in its last three games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Dream.
Aces vs Dream game info
| Location: | Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA |
| Date: | Friday, May 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
Aces vs Dream latest injuries
Aces: Chelsea Gray (out), Kierstan Bell (out).
Dream: Allisha Gray (questionable), Jordin Canada (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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