The 2024 Commissioner’s Cup ends Tuesday night in New York City, with the Minnesota Lynx facing the New York Liberty. Both the location of the game and their general strength explain why WNBA odds favor the Liberty.
But my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions will run counter to that, trusting the best defense in the league in my WNBA picks for this June 25 matchup.
Lynx vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Liberty team total Under 82.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Let’s make this clear: There is more at stake in the Commissioner’s Cup title game than in any other game before the playoffs. Each player on the winning roster will pocket an additional $20,000. Yes, many of these players make enough money they don't need a five-digit bonus, but it would still be nearly 10% of the highest annual salaries in this game.
No, this does not carry the prestige of winning in the playoffs — although winning the WNBA title comes with its own additional $13,000 bonus for each player — but logic still says this game should start a bit slower than most. Go beyond that intangible, though.
The New York Liberty lead the WNBA in rate of 3-point shots, taking 42.8% of their field-goal attempts from beyond the arc, and thus rank No. 2 in percentage of points scored on threes (35.8%).
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Lynx rank a seemingly average fifth in the number of threes attempted against per game, but they also rank No. 1 in the WNBA in 3-pointer percentage against (27.1%). No wonder Minnesota ranks No. 1 in defensive rating, a number that could finish in historic terms if it keeps up its current play.
Its greatest strength matches up exactly with New York’s greatest offensive need.
This game can and should be a tense one, given its stakes. These are, far and away, the two best teams in the WNBA this year — their net ratings are both +12.5 or higher, with only Connecticut’s +9.8 also above +5 — and a slower game should emphasize their defenses.
The Lynx defense warrants added praise, particularly with how it matches up against the Liberty’s offensive preferences.
Lynx vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty team total Under 82.5 points
Lynx +5
Jonquel Jones Under 16.5 points
A slower and more tense game should better the two-bucket underdog’s chance at remaining within the spread. And, frankly, it remains hard to trust New York against the spread. The Liberty are just 7-11 ATS this season, including 2-4 in their last six. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS, including 7-3 in its last 10.
Doubting Jonquel Jones’s scoring is never fun. She's cleared this points prop in five of her last seven games, part of averaging 16.8 points this season. But a disproportionate amount of her points come from deep, certainly more than expected from a 6-foot-6 center living on 8.8 rebounds per game.
Jones hits 1.9 threes per game on 43.6% shooting from deep. The Lynx are well-suited to cut down on those looks and those makes, thus making it much more unlikely Jones racks up points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Liberty odds
Lynx vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 (-110) | New York -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +184 | New York -225
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Lynx vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx were 5.5-point underdogs at most books early on Monday before some moved to +5 or even +4.5 in the afternoon.
- These two met a month ago in Minnesota, the Lynx winning by 17 as seven-point underdogs. The venue change explains why the line has moved only 1.5-2.5 points from then, effectively signalling a full six-point swing based largely on Minnesota’s continued impressive play.
- The early-week total of 161.5 stands out for being lower than New York’s last five pregame totals.
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Lynx vs Liberty trend
The Lynx are on a six-game winning streak, the longest in the WNBA, and have won nine of their last 10. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Liberty.
Lynx vs Liberty game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Elmont, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Lynx vs Liberty latest injuries
Lynx: Diamond Miller F (Out).
Liberty: Nyara Sabally F (Questionable), Betnijah Laney-Hamilton G (Questionable), Courtney Vandersloot G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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