Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Sparks Fly at Home

The Minnesota Lynx have shown a pulse the last two weeks, both in the WNBA odds and in the standings. The Los Angeles Sparks, meanwhile, have shown borderline dominance at home thus far this season. Only one of those trends can continue tonight, so which will it be?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Lynx vs the Sparks on June 16, with tip set for 10:00 p.m. ET.

Lynx vs Sparks best odds

Lynx vs Sparks picks and predictions

The Minnesota Lynx are quickly ruining their delightful tank for Iowa superstar Caitlin Clark. Okay, okay, that is mostly facetious. But by opening the season with six straight losses, Minnesota opened itself to those barbs.

Then it won two out of the next three games, including on Sunday against these Sparks, though that game was in the original home of the Lakers, not the adopted one.

Looking through the box score of that five-point Lynx win, the free-throw disparity stands out most. Frankly, Los Angeles’s numbers would have otherwise indicated a usual performance and thus probably a win. Shooting 32 percent from three was within reach of its usual rate, and committing 10 turnovers was actually better than usual. Minnesota was not particularly on fire, hitting just 7 of 26 from deep.

But the Lynx attempted 25 free throws, making 24 of them. Minnesota has averaged just 20.3 free throw attempts per game this season. Sunday was not a season-high, but it should be noted that the other four times the Lynx shot at least 20 free throws, they lost. They also have not made more than 22 free throws in a game other than Sunday.

Sure, that’s only two points, but that kind of swing would have given the Los Angeles Sparks a lead in the last minute. They may have won and covered as one-point favorites if not for the absurd quantity and quality of Minnesota’s free throws.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, took just 15 free throws on Sunday, down from its season average of 19.2. In their eight other games, the Sparks have shot 20 or more free throws in half of them. Remove a 28-point blowout loss to Las Vegas in which Los Angeles took just nine free throws and its season average rises to 20.5 attempts.

Sunday’s 15 stands out.

Chalk some of that up to the Lynx's discipline, giving up only 15.7 free throws per game, No. 2 in the league. But also chalk up some of Minnesota’s influx of free throws to home-court advantage, given Los Angeles ranks No. 4 in free throws allowed.

This is only one aspect of the game, but it stood out Sunday, and it should not continue tonight, particularly not with the change in venue.

The Sparks have not lost against the spread at home this season. They should be primed for a revenge moment tonight and enjoy a regression to the means at the free-throw line.

My best bet: Sparks -5 (-110 at Caesar's)

Lynx vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

Los Angeles has gone 3-1 outright at home this season and 3-0-1 against the spread. The one outright loss came against the defending champions, but the Sparks covered as 15.5-point underdogs, losing by “only” nine points thanks to a particularly strong first quarter. The push came in a seven-point win against Seattle, the Storm putting together a rally in the final three minutes to reach the number.

While Minnesota has been playing significantly better of late — going 4-1 ATS in its last five — losing Jessica Shepard tonight will make life more difficult. The forward is averaging nine points and nine rebounds in 33 minutes per game. She may as well be Minnesota’s metronome.

Illness is expected to keep Shepard sidelined tonight, yet that hardly seems to show up in the spread. If the Sparks were one-point favorites on the road on Sunday, wouldn’t it make more sense for them to be favored by 5.5 or 6 tonight? This line opened at -6 or -5.5, depending on your book, before settling to -5.5 and -5. It went the wrong way as bookmakers continue to disregard Los Angeles’s success at home.

The total moved just as much, opening at 163.5, falling to 162.5 and then bouncing back to 163.5. Neither of these teams has established a clear total trend this season, but looking at Sunday’s influx in Lynx free throws as that game surged past a total of 159.5, this pregame total jumping four points may be an overreaction.

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Lynx vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Under has hit in three of Los Angeles’s last four games, the exception being at Minnesota. Those three Unders cashed by an average of 28.2 points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sparks.

Lynx vs Sparks game info

Lynx vs Sparks key injuries

Lynx: Aerial Powers F (Out), Diamond Miller G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out)
Sparks: Jasmine Thomas G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Questionable), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out)

Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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