With the firework smoke clearing after the Fourth of July, the WNBA has three games on the Friday schedule, including games for two Western Conference contenders in the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm.
For my three favorite WNBA picks on Friday, I’m looking at why I think Dearica Hamby has the advantage over Las Vegas and how shifting roles for Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey make for a pair of valuable WNBA player prop picks.
WNBA player prop bets for July 5
- Tina Charles Over 15.5 points (-135 at betway)
- Dearica Hamby Over 17.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
- Marina Mabrey Under 14.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Picks made on 7-5 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Prop bet #1: Charles chomping at the bit for Wings matchup
Where would the Atlanta Dream be this season without Tina Charles?
The former MVP may be far removed from her prime but a year away from the game has rejuvenated her. Charles’ addition by Atlanta in the offseason didn’t make much of a splash, but it was easily the best move Atlanta has made in a few years. The Dream were starved for consistent frontcourt scoring and Charles is metronomic in her ability to produce paint points game after game.
Charles is also one of the better midrange shooters in the W. Her game isn’t predicated on getting right to the rim for every shot, so her athletic decline has not seen a drastic drop off in her ability to score the rock.
The Dream took some time to realize how important featuring Charles is to their fortunes, but now she’s the main finisher in their offense. That’s seen Charles’ production consistently rise in recent weeks. She’s averaging 18 points per game over her last seven games and hasn’t scored fewer than 14 in any of those outings.
The Dallas Wings, despite all their size, concede more points in the paint than any other W team at 39.8. With Charles seizing a bigger role and getting little resistance around the basket, I love the value of these Tina Charles odds.
Tina Charles prop: Over 15.5 points (-135 at betway)
Prop bet #2: Don't get mad, get even
There are certain players you don’t want to face with an energy deficit and Dearica Hamby is right at the top of the list. She never stops moving, she always pushes in transition, and she creates space using her physicality.
Unfortunately for the Las Vegas Aces, they’ll be tasked with guarding Hamby immediately following one of the more grueling turnarounds of the season. They played on Thursday night on the East Coast against the Washington Mystics and are playing the Los Angeles Sparks on the opposite coast exactly 24 hours later.
Hamby has been one of my favorite players to bet on this season because you never feel like she’s giving less than maximum effort. But even for a player like her, some games mean more than others, and she’s consistently been hyper-motivated for this specific matchup. Not only did she not leave the Aces on good terms, the league officially sanctioned the Aces for their misconduct.
She’s proven this season that she’s a star in her own right, not just in the Aces system, and she’ll have another opportunity to put a stamp on it going against former teammate and MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson.
In the first meeting between L.A. and Las Vegas, Hamby made the most of her opportunity for revenge totaling 29 points on 12 of 16 shooting, and she had 18 in the follow-up in Las Vegas. I expect this to play out more like the first meeting as the action shifts back to L.A. and Hamby comes in with a significant rest advantage.
Dearica Hamby prop: Over 17.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Mabrey's minutes declining
Marina Mabrey has had an up-and-down season for the Chicago Sky, but it’s never felt like her role was in jeopardy in any serious way in Teresa Weatherspoon’s rotation. That might be changing.
Mabrey played less than 19 minutes against the Dream on Tuesday, and it wasn’t due to foul trouble or injury. Indeed, if not for foul trouble by emerging star Chennedy Carter, she might have played even less.
Mabrey’s value is heavily predicated on her ability to hit shots. She went 2-for-8 and scored only four points, and some of those were heavily contested (and questionable) looks. But perhaps more importantly, she was getting attacked on defense repeatedly and seemed to be the weak link in the defensive chain every time something went wrong for the Sky.
What’s more, Mabrey’s replacements performed. Dana Evans is smaller, but she gets into it defensively and shoots the three well. Diamond DeShields also played well, going 3-for-5 for nine points and hitting clutch shots down the stretch. Mabrey didn’t see a second of action in the fourth quarter as the Sky rallied to win.
The Seattle Storm has a stout defense that would give me some confidence in these Marina Mabrey odds as it is, but with the possibility that her role in the rotation is no longer guaranteed going forward, I think they become excellent value.
Marina Mabrey prop: Under 14.5 points (-125 at bet365)
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Today’s WNBA games
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