Best WNBA Player Props Today: Alyssa Thomas Keeps Crushing Glass

Prop bet #1: Thomas Over 8.5 rebounds (-140)

They call Alyssa Thomas “The Engine” both because she’s the wheel on which the entire Connecticut Sun team turns, and because of her boundless energy to compete. Thomas is one of the rare players in the WNBA who regularly plays full 40-minute games if needed, and she never shows signs of gassing out.

Her energy and effort advantage will be brought into particularly sharp relief against the Phoenix Mercury tonight. The Mercury are coming off a dispiriting loss to the Indiana Fever on Sunday and have a few older players who will be punished by the short turnaround.

Thomas and the Sun have been off for two days, and she’s the kind of player to press the advantage in those situations. If you don’t put a body on her, she will beat you to the ball, and suddenly 50/50 balls turn into 90/10 ones, the rebounding margin grows to double digits, and the Sun cruise to another comfortable win.

The Mercury are not a good rebounding outfit, either, despite Brittney Griner’s towering size. Their 49.2% rebound rate is the fourth-worst in the W, and they are particularly abysmal at controlling the defensive glass. 

That’s where AT does most of her damage, and she regularly has as many rebounds on the offensive glass as she does on the other end. Yet these Alyssa Thomas odds inexplicably predict she’ll have a down-rebounding game, as she’s averaging 9.4 boards for the season.

I don’t see it that way. Her energy edge is notable even in adverse contexts, and I expect her to approach double-digit boards with the rest advantage.

Alyssa Thomas prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-140 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Diggins-Smith Over 6.5 assists

The Seattle Storm have something special brewing. After starting their season just 1-3, they’ve won 11 of 14 and find themselves just a half-game back of first place in the West.

The Storm's chemistry clicking into place shares a direct correlation with Skylar Diggins-Smith rediscovering her rhythm after missing all of the 2023 season.

Diggins-Smith is playing a pure point guard role for the Storm, constantly moving the ball and getting everyone involved. Seattle played the Dallas Wings just two days ago, and the Storm dominated in the pick-and-roll in no small part due to SDS’s play.

Teaira McCowan is a giant center, and her size allows her to rebound and deter post-ups and certain kinds of shots at the rim. But she's not the most dexterous, and her mobility defending in pick-and-roll has frequently been found wanting.

Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike are by contrast two of the better-moving bigs for their size, and they make incredibly deadly rollers for Diggins-Smith’s passing. Their burgeoning chemistry is why I am so keen on these Skylar Diggins-Smith odds.

Now that SDS has developed screen-and-roll chemistry with her bigs, she’s dicing up opposing defenses on the regular. She’s calmly slipping passes into the tiniest of gaps on the pick-and-roll and creating wide-open layups, both in the half-court and transition.

Diggins-Smith’s sublime passing would have resulted in more assists if not for the Wings' absurd foul rate. Dallas sent the Storm to the foul line 30 times on Saturday, a number they surely won’t sniff again today. With more traditional scoring finishes, I expect SDS will be credited with a few more assists for her fine work, making this one of my favorite plays on the board.

Skylar Diggins-Smith prop: Over 6.5 assists (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Copper Under 2.5 threes (-160)

Kahleah Copper is officially in a shooting slump. She’s made just seven threes on 33 attempts across her last five games, which is a little better than 21% from deep. To make three in this game on even 25% from deep, she’d need to get up 12 attempts, a rate of fire she’s only managed once all season long.

Furthermore, back-to-backs are bad for slumping players. When things are going well, you never want anything to be different. Routine and habit are the keys to rhythm. The inverse is true when things are going sideways. Copper will have had no chance to do that after another rough outing last night. 

The Sun also limit their opponents to just 20.3 3-point attempts per game, the fewest of any defense. They make it a point to force teams to beat them inside the arc, where Brionna Jones and AT are happy to make them pay a physical price for extracting points in the paint.

DeWanna Bonner is a little older than Copper, but she’s still a good defender with length enough to seriously bother Copper’s sightlines and make meaningful contests fighting over screens.

Copper’s frustration boiled over against the Fever leading to silly fouls and bad mistakes. If she found that game frustrating, the physicality of the Sun should prove equally so. Kah has only made three triples once in her last six games, making these Kahleah Coppers odds a value bet.

Kahleah Copper prop: Under 2.5 threes (-160 at DraftKings)