The defending champion Chicago Sky are back on top of the WNBA standings and looking to keep their winning streak alive as they fly to Texas to take on the Dallas Wings Saturday, July 16.
Dallas has shown signs of life lately, but with our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sky vs. Wings, we’re not sold on an upset.
Sky vs Wings odds
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sky vs Wings predictions
Predictions made on 7/16/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Wings info
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS Sports Network
Sky vs Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: Courtney Vandersloot (Out).
Wings: Satou Sabally (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Sky vs Wings picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Last year's WNBA champion Chicago Sky are back on top. After an up-and-down start to the season, the Sky have rattled off eight wins in their last 10 to compile the WNBA’s best record at 18-6.
The good vibes carried over as they hosted All-Star weekend, where Chicago-born Allie Quigley became the first player in NBA or WNBA history to four-peat as the 3-Point Contest champion. The feat makes Quigley unassailable as the league's best sharpshooter. The spacing she provides is as crucial to the Sky’s balanced offense as Candace Parker's post facilitation, Kahleah Copper’s dynamic on-ball play, or Courtney Vandersloot's steady floor generalship.
That’s both what makes the Sky so effective on the court and fun to watch. They’re not a one-trick pony, but a collection of diverse and complementary skillsets that have been honed to a fine edge. They have six players on the roster scoring 10 or more points per game (and Rebekah Gardner is at 9.1) and no player that scores 15 or more. In a game defined by on-ball superstars, the Sky are as close to an equal-opportunity offense as there is in basketball, and it’s proven difficult to handle for most teams.
The Dallas Wings have a more traditional hierarchy. Arike Ogunbowale is their unchallenged top-level star, and the team fills in around her. She’s averaging 19.7 points on solid efficiency and just exploded for 32 points on 12-24 from the field and 4-9 from long range in her last outing. She’s absolutely capable of taking over a game, and if she gets that hot, opposing defense becomes largely academic. Allisha Gray has also done her fair share carrying the offensive load for Dallas, and on lower volume has outstanding efficiency including 40.8% from three on 4.9 attempts per game.
Still, that one-two punch is not as reliable as the Sky’s well-oiled machine, the Sky own the No. 2 offense in the “W” at 105.2 as well as the league’s highest assist ratio at 20.8%. Dallas is no slouch at fifth overall on offense, but the cumulative gap on offense and defense between these two teams is wide and widening (Sky net rating is +7.6, Wings a lowly -0.6).
While the Wings have played better of late managing 5-5 in their last 10, the Sky are looking like potential back-to-back camps. I like Chicago to cover.
Prediction: Sky -4.5 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Both these teams rank near the worst in the league in terms of points allowed in the paint, as well as opponent second-chance points. That combination suggests their perimeter players are allowing easy penetration and their bigs aren’t walling off the rim or corralling misses effectively, all of which favor the Over.
The Wings also do a particularly good job generating extra possessions on the offensive glass, trailing only the Lynx and the Sun in that category. Chicago is a disciplined defense that rarely fouls, but the same can’t be said for Dallas, who gives up nearly 20 free throw attempts per game as a result.
These two teams are set up to take advantage of each other's defensive weaknesses and should trade buckets around the rim throughout this one, a formula that strongly favors the Over.
Prediction: Over 169.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
The Sky are coming off a dominant win over the Los Angeles Sparks, a game they won handily despite Candace Parker having an almost unspeakably unlucky shooting performance, where she managed to go 0-11 from the floor. In their last 10 games, Chicago has scored 88 or over seven times (and one time 87 on the dot) against opponents including the Aces, Sun, and Dream who are all drastically better defensive teams than the Wings.
The ability to deny the paint is the Wings’ single greatest weakness as a team. The Sky, despite not having that singular go-to scorer, still manage to lead the league in points in the paint at 40.5 per game.
The Sky are so well suited to take advantage of Dallas’ specific flaws that I like them to clear this point total as the best bet for Saturday’s game.
Pick: Sky team total Over 87 pts (-120 at Betway)
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